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Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

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Most read in the last 20 days:

Gold, the Safe Haven - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
Investments vs. Money Last week the price of gold went up another $11, but the price of silver dropped 4 cents. The gold-silver ratio hit another new high, up another point, though down from Tuesday’s high water mark. This obviously was not the week that wage-earners increased their money holdings or that institutions expressed a preference for the bargain of silver. Prosperity is just around the corner... and so is the trade deal. [PT] This coming week...
Independence Day in America Circa 2019
Freedom and Apple Pie The days are long and hot in the Northern Hemisphere when real American patriots raise the stars and stripes. Today the free and brave, with duty and self-sacrifice, begrudgingly accept federal holiday pay to stand tall upon their own two feet. Rugged individualism and uncompromising independence are essential to their character. Independence day festivities... With purpose and intent, they assemble as merry mobs along the shoreline to...
The Calm Before the Storm
Intra-Market Divergences Galore US big cap stocks have rallied to new highs in recent months, but just as in the rally from the low of the February 2018 mini-panic to the September/October 2018 peak, sizable divergences between different indexes have emerged in the process. New highs in the big cap indexes (DJIA, SPX, NDX) are once again not confirmed by small caps (RUT), the broad market (NYA) and a number of sub-sectors (such as the DJTA which is included in the chart below;...
The Strange Behavior of the US Dollar in the Wake of Fed Rate Cuts
A Change in Interest Rate Expectations In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I discussed the typical pattern of stock prices when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. As one would expect, the stock market tends to stabilize after cuts in the federal funds rate. The issue is topical, as many investors and analysts expect rate cuts to be implemented soon given that signs of an economic slowdown are beginning to proliferate. Market expectations about the direction of...
The Four Dimensions of the Fake Money Order
A Good Story with Minor Imperfections “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there,” is a quote that’s oft misattributed to Lewis Carrol. The fact that there is ambiguity about who is behind this quote on ambiguity seems fitting. For our purposes today, the spirit of the quote is what we are after. We think it may help elucidate the strange and confusing world of fake money in which we all travel. Consumer price index, y/y rate of change...
Wall of Worry M.I.A. - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
Too Much Excitement? The prices of the metals fell last week, with that of gold -$9 and silver -$0.32. Of course, it was a week of stock market exuberance. Why would anyone want to own money, or seek safety when the Fed can seemingly push interest down / assets up indefinitely? As the old TV ad for Lotto proclaimed “you gotta be in it, to win it!” “Stablecoin” Tether is used as a dollar stand-in on cryptocurrency exchanges that offer no fiat currency pairs. There has...
Resistance Created by Long-Suffering “Hodlers” - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
Gold vs Other Assets The prices of the metals went up +$15 and +$0.23. We will be brief this week, as Keith just got off a 17-hour flight from Perth to London. Stocks continue their march upwards. And hence the gold price seems stalled—or is it? It may seem like gold goes up, when stocks go down and vice versa. That’s been the recent pattern. Why should people own money without return, when stocks are where the action is? Gold-SPX ratio: in long-term gold bull markets,...

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Mish Talk

Brexit: Early Elections Coming, But How Early?
by Mish on July 21, 2019 at 01:56
Early elections in the UK are a given. How early? Before the end of the year, perhaps immediately. […]
67 Labour Party Members Attack Corbyn's Anti-Jewish Leadership in Newspaper Ad
by Mish on July 20, 2019 at 19:49
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is reeling from an ad by members of his own party accusing him of being anti-Jewish. […]
"Heading for Stagflation" says Peter Schiff: I Challenge Schiff to a Debate
by Mish on July 19, 2019 at 19:51
Peter Schiff predicts stagflation. I suggest another round of deflation is on the way and challenge him to a debate. […]
Inflation Targets: If You Can't Hit the Goal, Raising the Goalpost Won't Help
by Mish on July 19, 2019 at 18:55
The ECB is wondering if it can produce more inflation if it has higher targets. The notion is complete silliness. […]
Fed Panic! 10-Year vs 3-Month Yield Curve Spread Un-Inverts
by Mish on July 19, 2019 at 07:25
Over the past few weeks the 10-yr to 3-month inversion shank. That portion of the curve is no longer inverted. So what? […]