The New In Gold We Trust Report is Here!

The In Gold We Trust 2020 report by our good friends Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek was released last week. It is the biggest and most comprehensive gold research report in the world. As always it contains a wealth of new material, as well as the traditional wide-ranging collection of charts and data that makes it such a valuable reference work for everything of interest to gold investors or indeed for anyone interested in precious metals (a download link to the report is provided below).

 

Left: casting gold bars. Right: using gold as a shield against assorted slings and arrows.

 

Here is a brief overview of the main subjects discussed in the report:

 

– A review of the most important events in the gold market in recent months

– An analysis of the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the price of gold

– The increasing importance of gold in times of de-dollarization

– Silver – ready to fly high?

– Gold and cryptocurrencies

– Gold mining stocks: The bull market has started

– Outlook for the gold price development in this decade: A gold price of around USD 4,800 suggested by our quantitative model, even with a conservative calibration of the parameters.

 

As an aside, yours truly has also contributed a brief chapter to this year’s report, namely the chapter on capital consumption starting on page 192.

As this year’s IGWT report is published, gold has finally clearly reentered a bull market. Of course, with hindsight it is obvious that a bull market was underway ever since the mid-cycle correction ended in late 2015, but it was initially a very labored, halting affair, a “stealth” bull market if you will. And while gold may not yet be at a new all time high in US dollar terms, it has reached new highs in numerous other major currencies:

 

Gold priced in USD, XAD, EUR, JPY, CAD and ZAR. The 2011 – 2015 bear market was quite severe in US dollar terms – equivalent to the size of the mid-cycle bear market from 1974 to 1976 – but in non-dollar currencies is was in many cases essentially nothing more than a shallow pullback.

 

Download link to the IGWT 2020 Report:

In Gold We Trust 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade (PDF)

 

Enjoy!

 

Chart by stockcharts

 

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Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our header carries ab black flag. This is due to the recent passing of the main author of the Acting Man blog, Heinz Blasnik, under his nom de plume 'Pater Tenebrarum'. We want to thank you for following his blog for meanwhile 11 years and refer you to the 'Acting Man Classics' on the sidebar to get an introduction to his way of seeing economics. In the future, we will keep the blog running with regular uptates from our well known Co-Authors. For that, some financial help would be greatly appreciated. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

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6 Responses to “In Gold We Trust, 2020 – The Dawning of a Golden Decade”

  • utopiacowboy:

    In the current circumstances with world economies depressed and all of them printing money by the trillions, gold should be at $5000 or more per ounce but it’s not. In the perfect storm if it’s not skyrocketing, then it never will. Gold is a bust.

    • RedQueenRace:

      Folks can be a long-term holder for protection or a trader. There might be a few that fit in another category. But I think the majority fall into one of those two, or both (e.g., hold a “core” position and trade around it).

      Traders should be the only ones concerned with price. And of course traders shouldn’t care about absolute price level. They should be concerned about direction and if it isn’t doing what they think it “should” be doing they should reconsider their trading position.

      I see many “the dollar is / will be worthless” gold proponents, especially on Seeking Alpha since I read there a lot, that obsess over where the gold price “should be.”

      That should not matter to them (actually, they should hope for mispricing to the downside). But generally, if one is holding for that reason the price should be irrelevant. Once the dollar is worthless there will be no dollar price. That they do obsess leads me to believe

      1) They are not really holding it for the reasons they claim.

      2) They are holding too much of their net worth in it and are at risk of forced liquidation at an inopportune time, price-wise.

      3) or maybe they are just not very self-aware.

      • utopiacowboy:

        I don’t own any gold nor do I plan on owning any. The gold bugs case for gold has absolutely no merit as witnessed by the current situation. Likewise trading gold is an irrational pursuit but then you could say that about today’s stock market as well.

    • Wombat:

      Gold has been going up i.e. more expensive at a rate of 10% a year for the last 10 years .

      That’s not shabby IMO

  • 23571113:

    It’s just amazing how after years of predicting $2300 by, what, 2018?, failed to materialize, they are now predicting $4800 by 2030! Simply unreal! Do they live in this world I’m living in?

    • Wombat:

      Is it not good that you can buy gold now at a cheaper price than predicted?
      My point is that one should not buy gold to simply sell it some higher price of $.
      Suggest 50% each cash and gold, among all other assets.

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