From Crash Danger to End-of-the-Year Ramp

 

[Ed note by PT: we are unfortunately a week late in posting this issue of SI, which didn’t reach us in time due to a technical problem. We decided to post it belatedly anyway: for one thing, the effect under discussion is normally in effect until the end of the year; for another, the statistical validity of this information goes beyond the current year, as it is a recurring phenomenon. Lastly we would note that we have a strong suspicion that the effect may actually be cut short this year – details to be discussed in a follow-up post]

 

Knock, knock… it’s Jack, from Wall Street

 

After the last day of October, the month that has investors in fear of the next big stock market crash follows Halloween  – and while this is a spooky day, it actually marks the start of a period that typically tends to yield promising returns for investors.

What is commonly referred to as Halloween Effect or Halloween Strategy is the fact that stock market returns on average turn noticeably positive from late October onward.

This phenomenon has been widely discussed well beyond the confines of experts on seasonality like ourselves and was inter alia subject of several academic studies, with a number of well-known scholars providing valuable contributions (Jacobsen & Visaltanachoti; Haggard & Witte; Maberly & Pierce and many others)*.

We are revisiting the topic in this edition of Seasonal Insights.

 

The Halloween Effect is a Global Phenomenon

We begin by looking at the first part of the Halloween Effect with the help of the  Seasonax Web App (note: details on the web app can be found here; readers of Acting Man qualify for a special discount)

We have analyzed three of the most important stock indexes from around the world to find out whether they exhibit a common pattern. In all three cases the time period from October 31st  to January 3rd was reviewed.

Please note that these indexes have been examined with the aim of showing a general trend. One can filter out individual stocks that exhibit the same seasonal patterns, but generate much higher returns.

The first index is the DAX, a composite of the 30 largest German companies. It shows a distinct seasonal pattern in the respective time-period with 77.78% winning trades of and an average annualized return of 34.05%.

 

The seasonal pattern of the DAX is in line with the theory of the Halloween Effect

 

The second index we looked at is the Russel 2000, the small-cap stock market index of the bottom 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index. It shows 81.25% winning trades with an average annualized return of 24.83%.

 

In the Russel 2000 the Halloween pattern generated 13 winners and just 3 losing years over the past 16 years.

 

The last index we examined is the Japanese Nikkei 225 – a very important index in a global comparison, as it tends to exhibit deviations from general global trends. However, its seasonal trend is also in line with the global Halloween Effect pattern, with 78.57% winning trades and an annualized return of 44.18%.

 

The Nikkei exhibits roughly the same pattern as the other two indexes.

 

The Halloween Effect is a Reliable Seasonal Pattern

This seasonal analysis of three international indexes indicates that the statistical probability that stock prices will rally from October 31st onward is very high (obviously there are occasional exceptions). Depending on investment style, sector and individual stock analysis can be used as an additional filter to this analysis of the general trend.

Our aim here was to show that the phenomenon is not an illusion, but is actually  a real-world effect with strong statistical significance that applies globally.

Furthermore, note that the years in which the effect did not occur were primarily the well-known bear market phase of the GFC and the steep, but brief correction characterizing the “China scare”, while the Nikkei was also thrown off course in the year of the big tsunami (but not in 2008): 2007, 2008, 2015 in the Russell, 2007, 2008, 2015, 2017 in the DAX and 2007, 2011 and 2015 in the Nikkei.

Jacobsen and Visaltanachoti (2009: 439) also make the point, that “contrary to other anomalies, we find that the seasonal effect does not disappear after being discovered”. This means there is a good chance that this seasonal pattern will continue to be reliable in the future.

Gove app.seasonax.com a try to find more profitable seasonal investment opportunities – a wealth of good investment ideas still awaits discovery. There are no guarantees in the markets, but you can certainly let probabilities work in your favor!

 

*Bibliography

Jacobsen, B., & Visaltanachoti, N. (2009). The Halloween effect in US sectors.

Financial Review, 44(3), 437-459.

Haggard, K. S., & Witte, H. D. (2010). The Halloween effect: Trick or treat?.

International Review of Financial Analysis, 19(5), 379-387.

Maberly, E. D., & Pierce, R. M. (2004). Stock market efficiency withstands another

challenge: Solving the” sell in May/buy after Halloween” puzzle. Econ Journal Watch, 1(1), 29.

 

Dimitri Speck specializes in pattern recognition and trading systems development. He is the founder of Seasonax, the company which created the Seasonax app for the Bloomberg and Thomson-Reuters systems. He also publishes the website www.SeasonalCharts.com , which features selected seasonal charts for interested investors free of charge. In his book The Gold Cartel (published by Palgrave Macmillan), Dimitri provides a unique perspective on the history of gold price manipulation, government intervention in markets and the vast credit excesses of recent decades. His ground-breaking work on intraday patterns in gold prices was inter alia used by financial supervisors to gather evidence on the manipulation of the now defunct gold and silver fix in London. His Stay-C commodities trading strategy won several awards in Europe; it was the best-performing quantitative commodities fund ever listed on a German exchange.

You can find an introduction to the Seasonax app and in-depth information on what it can do here. Furthermore, here is a complementary page on the web-based Seasonax app, which costs less and offers slightly different functionality (note: subscriptions through Acting Man qualify for special discounts – for both the Bloomberg/Reuters and the web-based versions of the app! Details are available on request – simply write a note to info@acting-man.com with the header Seasonax!).

 

Charts by app.seasonax.com 

 

Editing & chart and image captions by PT

 

 

 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 


 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 12vB2LeWQNjWh59tyfWw23ySqJ9kTfJifA

   
 

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • The Gold Debate – Where Do Things Stand in the Gold Market?
      A Recurring Pattern When the gold price recently spiked up to approach the resistance area even Aunt Hilda, Freddy the town drunk, and his blind dog know about by now, a recurring pattern played out. The move toward resistance fanned excitement among gold bugs (which was conspicuously lacking previously). This proved immediately self-defeating - prices pulled back right away, as they have done almost every time when the slightest bit of enthusiasm emerged in the sector in recent...
  • Monetary U-Turn: When Will the Fed Start Easing Again? Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting Q1 2019
      Special Guest Trey Reik and Board Member Jim Rickards Discuss Fed Policy On occasion of its Q1 meeting in late January, the Incrementum Advisory Board was joined by special guest Trey Reik, the lead portfolio manager of the Sprott Institutional Gold & Precious Metal Strategy at Sprott USA since 2015 [ed note: as always, a PDF of the complete transcript can be downloaded further below].   Trey Reik of Sprott USA.   Also at the meeting, Jim Rickards, who is inter...
  • Acting Man Returns - A Brief Housekeeping Note
      Pater Temporarily Keels Over Regular readers have no doubt noticed that the blog has fallen silent for around three weeks and may be wondering what has happened. In a nutshell, we were hospitalized. After a lengthy time period during which our health gradually but steadily deteriorated (we have complained about this previously), we finally keeled over. Thereupon we were forced to entrust the ruin that houses our mind to an experienced team of doctors (depicted below).   A...
  • Watch Europe - Free Pass for the Elliott Wave European Financial Forecast
      Europe at an Important Juncture European economic fundamentals have deteriorated rather noticeably over the past year - essentially ever since the German DAX Index topped out in January 2018. Now, European stock markets have reached an important juncture from a technical perspective. Consider the charts of the Euro-Stoxx 50 Index and the DAX shown below:   The Euro-Stoxx 50 Index already peaked in early November 2017, the DAX followed suit in January 2018 – such divergent peaks...
  • Why Warren Buffett Should Buy Gold
      Riding the Tailwinds of Fiat Money Inflation to Fame and Fortune Warren Buffett bought his first shares of stock when he was 11 years old.  He saved up $114.75 and “went all in,” purchasing three shares of Cities Service preferred stock.  The day was March 11, 1942 – nearly 77 years ago.  Buffett recently reminisced about this purchase in his annual letter to shareholders:   “I had become a capitalist, and it felt good.”   The Oracle of Omaha – he was...
  • Fake Money’s Face Value Deceit
      Not the Brightest Tool in the Shed Shane Anthony Mele stumbled off the straight and narrow path many years ago.  One bad decision here.  Another there.  And he was neck deep in the smelly stuff. These missteps compounded over the years and also magnified his natural shortcomings.  Namely, that he’s a thief and – to be polite – a moron.   Over-educated he ain't: Shane Anthony Mele, whose expressive mug was captured by a Florida police photographer first in...
  • Rise of the Zombies - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Rise of the Zombies - Precious Metals Supply and Demand Last week, the prices of gold and silver fell $35 and ¢70, respectively. But what does that mean (other than woe unto anyone who owned silver futures with leverage)? The S&P 500 index and the euro was up a bit, though the yuan was flat and copper was down. Most notably, the spread between Treasury and junk yields fell. If the central banks can lower the risk of default premium, they can make everything unicorns and...
  • Bitcoin Bottom Building
      Defending 3,800 and a Swing Trade Play For one week, bulls have been defending the 3,800 USD value area with success. But on March 4th they had to give way to the constant pressure. Prices fell quickly to the 3,700 USD level. These extended times of range bound trading are typical for Bitcoin Bottom Building in sideways ranges. This 60 minute chart of Bitcoin shows (represented by the yellow candlestick wicks) how the bulls defended 3,800 USD :   BTCUSDT 60 minute chart...
  • The Magic Doesn't Always Work - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      The Week Ends with a Surprise The weekly closing prices of the precious metals were up +$5 and +¢11. But this does not tell the full story of the trading action. Prices were dropping until Friday. More precisely, Friday 8am in New York, or 1pm in London.   Gold and silver - back in demand on Friday... [PT]   At that moment, a light cabal conspiring to jack the price struck traders began buying. The end result was the prices, especially of silver, rose on the day...
  • Intraweek Profit Opportunities
      In 6 of 10 Countries a Single Day Outperforms the Entire Week! In the Seasonal Insights issue of 13 February 2019 I presented a study illustrating the power of intraweek effects. The article was entitled “S&P 500 Index: A Single Day Beats the Entire Week!” The result of the study: if one had been invested exclusively during a single day of the week since 2000  – namely on Tuesday – one would have outperformed a buy and hold strategy, beating the broad market. Moreover,...

Support Acting Man

Item Guides

Austrian Theory and Investment

j9TJzzN

The Review Insider

Archive

Dog Blow

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

Mish Talk

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!