Fat-Boy Waves

The prices of the metals dropped $17 and $0.35, and the gold-silver ratio rose to 77.  A look at the chart of either metal shows that a downtrend in prices (i.e. uptrend in the dollar) that began in mid-April reversed in mid-July. Then the prices began rising (i.e. dollar began falling). But that move ended September 8.

 

Stars of the most popular global market sitcoms, widely suspected of being “gold wave-makers”. From left to right: Auntie Janet “Transitory” Yellen, Mario “Smaug” Draghi, and last but not least, the healthiest leader in history, Jong-un “Fat-Boy” Kim, as always positively radiating good vibes. [PT] – click to enlarge.

 

One way to think of these moves is as the addition of energy into the market. Like tossing a pebble into a still pond (not quantity of water, but energy that perturbs it). Once the speculators get the idea that gold and especially silver should go up, well it becomes self-fulfilling. Statements by the Fed, the ECB, or even the fat-boy who rules North Korea can all have an effect.

Buying begets buying, as the chart shows signs of a breakout. But then, especially in this moribund market, the energy of new speculation is depleted. And the price subsides, until new energy is added by the next event. We are in that mode right now.

 

A scene from the famed European hit sitcom “Not Enough Inflation”,  season 15, episode 4: “Mario’s Nightmare”. [PT]

Photo credit: Reuters

 

Fundamental Developments

We will look at an updated picture of the fundamentals of supply and demand of both metals. But first, here are the charts of the prices of gold and silver, and the gold-silver ratio.

 

Gold and silver, priced in USD – click to enlarge.

 

Next, this is a graph of the gold price measured in silver, otherwise known as the gold to silver ratio. The ratio rose.

 

In this graph, we show both bid and offer prices for the gold-silver ratio. If you were to sell gold on the bid and buy silver at the ask, that is the lower bid price. Conversely, if you sold silver on the bid and bought gold at the offer, that is the higher offer price.

 

Gold-silver ratio, bid and offer – click to enlarge.

 

For each metal, we will look at a graph of the basis and co-basis overlaid with the price of the dollar in terms of the respective metal. It will make it easier to provide brief commentary. The dollar will be represented in green, the basis in blue and co-basis in red.

 

Below is the intraday gold graph showing Friday’s action, i.e., the gold price and the gold basis intraday (here you can see the regular 3-month gold basis chart).

 

The gold price in USD (golden line) and the gold basis (blue line) – click to enlarge.

 

This is interesting. From a bit after 6am (GMT) the price of gold is rising but the basis is falling. That means the buying was fundamental, i.e., gold metal was bought. This lasted until a bit after 7am. At around 10:30am, something different occurred. Speculators started buying futures. They drove the price up from $1,288 to $1,290, but this took the basis up from 0.8% to 0.83%.

After that, the basis tracked the price. That is, when price was falling basis was falling (i.e., futures were being sold) and when price was rising basis rose with it (i.e., futures were bought). By the way, don’t pay too much attention to the end of the day, as particularly on a Friday liquidity tends to dry up and the signal can be spurious.

Our calculated Monetary Metals gold fundamental price fell $30 to $1,348.

Now let’s look at the action in silver intraday on Friday (here is the regular daily silver basis chart).

 

Silver priced in USD (gray line) and the silver basis (blue line) – click to enlarge.

 

Interestingly again, we see the same fundamental buying of silver after 6am from $16.80 to $16.86 while the basis drops from 0.5% to 0.47%. After that, like in gold, the price action was driven by speculators in the futures markets.

 

Our calculated Monetary Metals silver fundamental price fell $0.25 to $17.05.

 

© 2017 Monetary Metals

 

Charts by stockcharts, Monetary Metals

 

Chart and image captions by PT

 

Dr. Keith Weiner is the president of the Gold Standard Institute USA, and CEO of Monetary Metals. Keith is a leading authority in the areas of gold, money, and credit and has made important contributions to the development of trading techniques founded upon the analysis of bid-ask spreads. Keith is a sought after speaker and regularly writes on economics. He is an Objectivist, and has his PhD from the New Austrian School of Economics. He lives with his wife near Phoenix, Arizona.

 

 

 

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