The Worst Job in the World

The rewards of being the President, these days, are few and far between.  Just ask President Trump.  The work hours are terrible, the pay is far less than that of a corporate CEO, and you’re endlessly surrounded by shabby politicians.  What’s more, the  hand towels  aboard Air Force One have the shoddy over washed roughness of those at a turnpike Motel 6.  But that’s not the worst of it.

 

While we’re at it, let us introduce you to the runner-up, i.e., the second-worst job in the world. We are not sure what job title this poor man actually has (elephant rectum administrator? Pachyderm intestinal inspection officer?), but we sure hope he’s at least getting paid well.

Photo via Top Media Trends

 

Any and all efforts to remake foreign policy to address the threats of the 21st century – not the 20th century – are undermined by the intelligence community with vehement efficiency.  Before you can say Jack Robinson, the leaky conduit to the mainstream media boils up the latest brouhaha to simmering pot.

For example, last week Trump had to fire his national security adviser for engaging in statesmanship with the Russians.  Then, after that, John McCain – a Class A ignoramus – went and kvetched about Trump’s efforts from Europe.  Good grief!

 

Trump critic John McCain, a.k.a. the Angel of Death (whenever he visits a foreign country, the probability that its inhabitants will soon be wading knee-deep in blood and guts rises astronomically). McCain is one of the most influential shills for the military-industrial/ ”national security” racket in Congress (which is the by far biggest racket in the world, see “War Racket Update” on the trillions of dollars that have disappeared in the Pentagon without a trace, “The Greatest Racket of All Time” on the massive boondoggle known as the GWOT, and “The Myth of War Prosperity”, a reminder that war is actually not “good for the economy”). Not only is McCain opposed to Trump because the latter apparently refuses to toe the neo-con line on Russia and Syria, but he’s probably also still sore about Trump publicly uttering misgivings about his “war hero” status. There appears to be some evidence that McCain’s war time record is actually not all it’s cracked up to be (that would actually make him especially useful for the men behind the curtain). His attempts at humor leave a lot to be desired as well.

Photo credit: Mike Segar / Reuters

 

With the exception of being a flatus odor judge, we can’t think of a stinkier job than being the President of the United States.  Can you?

There’s little privacy.  Newspapers across the planet psychoanalyze your every facial expression; many conclude you’re mentally ill.  You can hardly wander the halls of your own home in your bathrobe – during night hours no less – without it making front page news.

 

And here is the third-worst job in the world: Caiman dental hygienist. If you have this kind of job, we strongly recommend to live every day as if it were your last.

Photo via Top Media Trends

 

Wild and Wacky Markets

Yet, despite all this, has there ever been a President before President Trump who made the job look so doggone fun?  In all seriousness, what could be more fun than getting paid to look CNN’s Jim Acosta in the eyes and tell him that CNN will no longer be referred to as “fake news;” but rather, as “very fake news?”  As far as we can tell, Trump’s having a rip-roaring good time.

Indeed, publicly roasting the mainstream media – calling them the enemy of the American people – must be one of the few redeeming perks of the job.  But, on balance, the advantages of being leader of the free world come up short when compared to nearly all other gigs.

 

The “very fake news” moment. There is actually no shortage of questionable reporting by the mainstream news media, which is often little more than thinly disguised propaganda, particularly on the issues of war and prior to major elections. A few examples: the top ten scripted media stories; on CNN specifically: top 4 reasons it’s called fake, the mysterious mic outages, CNN fake news compilation part 1, part 2, part 3, and this golden moment “Donald Trump has ‘undermined the messaging so much’ that he can actually control what people think – and that is our job.” (note: we haven’t watched all these clips in their entirety, we just skimmed a few and picked the ones that seemed interesting. They probably have their own bias issues, some will be more interesting than others. Nevertheless, we think Trump had a very good point when he once remarked that “without the media, Hillary couldn’t be elected dog catcher”).

 

Where markets are concerned, in these early days of the President Trump era, wild and wacky occurrences have become the norm.  The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ are setting new highs practically every day. In fact, this week the Dow marked its 10th record close in a row.

You have to go back over 30 years to find the last time the Dow pulled off such an achievement.  It’s breathtaking.  But that’s not the half of it.  The Dow’s jumped and jived in ways that have broken the bounds of what market technicians thought was possible.

On Wednesday, if you weren’t aware, the Dow closed 2,000 points above its 200-day moving average.  For perspective, the last time this happened was… never.  In other words, in the Dow’s 120-year history this has never, ever happened.  What to make of it?

 

DJIA, daily. The gap between the average and its 200-day moving average has become quite large. Even if one assumes that the bull market is set to continue, there are probably better moments to enter the market than this one. Generally we would note: from a purely technical perspective, the market seems to be in fine fettle. From a valuation perspective it is utterly toxic and investors shouldn’t touch it with a 10-foot pole. From a sentiment and positioning perspective it is one of the most over-loved markets in history. Stunning new records are set in a wide range of sentiment indicators with unwavering regularity. Sentiment always follows prices, but is not the fact that new record readings in the relevant indicators are seen here and there that is so astonishing. What is astonishing is the huge margin by which previous records have been exceeded in some cases, as well as the persistence of these extreme readings. This persistence effect is likely to be mirrored in the other direction once the bear market phase is underway – click to enlarge.

 

The Dow Speaks: “In Trump We Trust!”

Every suspicion inside of us, from our brain to our gut to our big toe, says stocks should have crashed long ago.  They are overvalued to the extreme by all valuation measurements.

The S&P 500’s Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was 29.29 at yesterday’s close.  That is well above its 16.72 long term average.  Likewise, the Buffett indicator – market capitalization to gross national product – ended the day at 130.7 percent.  This is considered “significantly overvalued.”

 

At the end of January the PE-10 (or CAPE, or Shiller P/E ratio) stood at 28.2. Currently it clocks in at 29.3. Only at the 1929 peak (32.6) and the year 2000 tech mania peak (44.2) was it even higher than today. These previous peaks were exceptionally bad times to buy or hold stocks, but this time it is of course going to be different, because… well, for some reason (feel free to make one up!) – click to enlarge.

 

Certainly a crash is coming eventually, but is it imminent? Never in our lives can we recall a market that over-appreciated the abilities of one man to the extent of today’s market.  The words spoken by the Dow are: “In Trump We Trust!”

Expectations of forthcoming tax cuts, deregulation, and prospects for faster economic growth, including corporate earnings growth, have been priced into the market as if they were a done deal.

Who knows?  Maybe they are a done deal.  President Trump has achieved the impossible before.  Who are we to say he won’t do it again?

But, on the other hand, what if Trump is unable to his push tax cuts through Congress?  Or what if his efforts to bring jobs back to America start a trade war?What tune will the Dow be singing then?

 

They’re so bullish, it hurts! It is highly likely that the real hurt is yet to come.

Screenshot via CNBC

 

We can already envision the teeth gnashing panic that will erupt on Wall Street when investors realize en masse that they’ve pushed the market well out over the ledge.  Our advice is to make an Irish exit from the party now while one still can.

 

Charts by: StockCharts, Doug Short / AdvisorPerspectives

 

Chart and image captions by PT

 

MN Gordon is President and Founder of Direct Expressions LLC, an independent publishing company. He is the Editorial Director and Publisher of the Economic Prism – an E-Newsletter that tries to bring clarity to the muddy waters of economic policy and discusses interesting investment opportunities.

 

 

 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 


 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 12vB2LeWQNjWh59tyfWw23ySqJ9kTfJifA

   
 

3 Responses to “The Dow Speaks: “In Trump We Trust””

  • rodney:

    Generally we would note: from a purely technical perspective, the market seems to be in fine fettle. From a valuation perspective it is utterly toxic and investors shouldn’t touch it with a 10-foot pole. From a sentiment and positioning perspective it is one of the most over-loved markets in history. Stunning new records are set in a wide range of sentiment indicators with unwavering regularity. Sentiment always follows prices, but is not the fact that new record readings in the relevant indicators are seen here and there that is so astonishing. What is astonishing is the huge margin by which previous records have been exceeded in some cases, as well as the persistence of these extreme readings. This persistence effect is likely to be mirrored in the other direction once the bear market phase is underway

    — Caption by PT

    While I agree with you more often than not, I would suggest that your bearish forecasts based on sentiment have failed time and again. Why? May I suggest you stick exclusively to analysis of the growth rate of TMS-2. Had you used it as your main guiding light you wouldn’t have stuck to your bearish forecasts, as the rate of monetary inflation never got to a dangerously low level throughout the bull market.

  • rodney:

    On Wednesday, if you weren’t aware, the Dow closed 2,000 points above its 200-day moving average. For perspective, the last time this happened was… never. In other words, in the Dow’s 120-year history this has never, ever happened. What to make of it?

    I cannot accept alarmist nonsense like this. If you really want to make proper historical statistical comparisons you should be talking about percentage points above the 200-day moving average. I haven’t done the exercise myself, but I am willing to bet that the “never, ever happened” part would be revealed as false.

  • wmbean:

    Fake news had been around since 1642, or thereabouts, when both Parliament and the King published their own reports of the English civil wars and political commentary. Obviously the King’s job was a killer at that time. But be it royal or parliamentarian many of the troops suffered the same fate. Like America’s great civil war, The English lost more countrymen to that particular conflict than the combines casualties of WWI and WWII. As always, those who profited were those who supplied the winning side. In times of conflict and turmoil that is how the cookie crumbles. I would venture the guess that the time is far too early to determine which side will win. Like the English civil wars, we could be in for a couple of decades worth of the fog of war. Now that the Dutch are having second thoughts as to the wisdom of belonging the the EU we can see that the European center cannot hold as Italy is determined to leave and france may follow in her own fashion. Greece is simply chump change. The odds do not favor the globalists in the long run.

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Circling the Drain
      Drain, drain, drain...   "Master!", cried the punters, "we urgently need rain! We can no longer bear this unprecedented pain!" "I'm sorry my dear children, you beg for rain in vain. It is I who is in charge now and mine's the put-less reign. The bubble dragon shall be slain, by me, the bubble bane. That rustling sound? That's me... as I drain and drain and drain." [ed note: cue evil laughter with lots of giant cave reverb]   - a public...
  • Washington’s Latest Match Made In Hell
      Almost Predictable One of the more enticing things about financial markets is not that they’re predictable.  Or that they’re not predictable.  It’s that they’re almost predictable... or at least they seem they should be.   For a long time people believed – and from what we read and hear, many still do – that economic cycles move in easily predictable, regular time periods. All you had to do was create a chart of the up and down waves of your favorite cycle model...
  • The Strongest Season for Silver Has Only Just Begun
      Commodities as an Alternative Our readers are presumably following commodity prices. Commodities often provide an alternative to investing in stocks – and they have clearly discernible seasonal characteristics. Thus heating oil tends to be cheaper in the summer than during the heating season in winter, and wheat is typically more expensive before the harvest then thereafter.   Silver: 1,000 ounce good delivery bars [PT]   Precious metals are also subject to...
  • The Real or Imagined Third Fed Mandate - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Fundamental Developments – Silver Looking Frisky The price of gold went up four bucks, and the price of silver rose 32 cents. Silver has been going up in gold terms since the middle of last week, when the gold-silver ratio peaked at just under 87. It closed this week at just under 82 (a lower ratio means silver is more valuable).   Silver: more valuable since last week, both in absolute and relative terms. Just avoid dropping it on your toes – it's still just as heavy as...
  • The Downside of Mindless Investing
      Unexpected Inflection Points High inflection points in life, like high inflection points in the stock market, are both humbling and instructive.  One moment you think you’ve got the world by the tail.  The next moment the rug’s yanked right out from under you.   The yanked rug... [PT]   Where the stock market is concerned, several critical factors are revealed following a high inflection point.  These factors are not always obvious at first.  But they become...
  • The Chairman's Curse - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Something Odd is Happening The price of gold went up two bucks, while that of silver fell ten pennies. Something’s odd about how the metals have traded. Back when the market thought that the Fed was tightening, the prices of gold and silver were rising. Silver is now about a buck higher than its Oct-Nov trading range.   A timeline of brief bubble trouble followed by bubble restoration via Hedgeye. It starts in early December (upper left corner) when Santa refuses to provide...
  • Kicking Xi Jinping While He’s Down
      One Great Big Difference On a beautiful midsummer day, roughly six months ago, two distinguished men, of distinguished stature, crossed paths under precarious circumstances.  They are very much alike, these two distinguished men.   Let's confuse him...  [PT]   Both are men of enormous ego.  Both are filled with ambitious delusions for the future.  Both are masters of persuasion.  Both offer a cause and conviction people can rally behind. Both deliver frequent...
  • Shifting Reasons to Buy Gold - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Intermarket Correlation Dance Monday was Martin Luther King Day in the US. The price of gold dropped six bucks last week. The price of silver fell 26 cents, a greater percentage. The price of gold can sometimes correlate well with the price of stocks. For example, from April 2009 - July 2011. The price of gold went from $892 to $1,626, while in the same time period the S&P went from 841 to 1,289. The percentages are different — gold’s was 82% and the S&P’s 53% — but they...

Support Acting Man

Item Guides

Austrian Theory and Investment

j9TJzzN

The Review Insider

Archive

Dog Blow

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

Mish Talk

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Diary of a Rogue Economist