Yellen Looms

We’ve got a bit of a double whammy going on today in that it’s the last session before the long weekend plus Yellen is scheduled to speak late in the day. So it’s probably fair to say that few of us are going to be doing much on the trading front and I wouldn’t be surprised if most of you are already on the way out.

 

hitting_the_roadOff we go…

 

Best to call it a week – quite frankly I could use a few days off myself as I have been working hard behind the scenes over the past few few weeks. However it’s become a long standing tradition here at the evil lair to send you guys off with a few charts of interest and I would hate to disappoint. In no particular order:

Stocks:

 

1_spoosSpoos (ES) hourly and daily – click to enlarge.

 

Equities are of course in everyone’s mind as the pre-holiday/ Yellen spike higher now left the bears in a pretty tenuous position. The short term panel is looking as bullish as they come but I don’t think we’re going to see much movement here ahead of 5:15pm – thus the session is pretty much a tosser. Two considerations I’d like to offer however:

 

 

  • If Yellen maintains her general stance of ambivalence then it’s quite possible we’ll see a EOD spike higher leaving any remaining bears (are there any?) in the lurch over the long weekend (especially if you’re holding puts for the next three days losing theta).
  • Now should she verbally slip or even suggest a future hike (which would probably not happen anyway but alas) then it’s possible that we’ll see an equities dump lower. I still believe that all that support on the daily would hold until next Tuesday.
  • You can hedge yourself with some puts today but be sure to dump them after the announcement as you don’t want to lose all that time value for nothing. Alternatively employ a long debit spread with the short end below 2030 plus minus.

 

Soybean Meal:

 

2-_ZMZM (soybean meal), hourly and daily – click to enlarge.

 

Soybean Meal has been one on a rampage and I am waiting for a little retest of the recent highs before I grab a few short positions. The daily panel look scary as hell – agreed – but it is the weekly that suggests a shake out is near.

 

Wheat:

 

3_wheat_LTWheat, weekly and monthly – click to enlarge.

 

Wheat caught my attention today as it’s painting a pretty compelling floor pattern. I think there is much fun to be had here over the coming weeks and months. Just put it on your watch list for now and I’ll be sure to revisit this one when the time is right.

 

Charts by Evil Speculator/ Ninja Trader

 

For more trading-oriented updates, visit the Evil Speculator.

 

 

 

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