The Battle Between Inflationary and Deflationary Forces

At the meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board in early October, there was once again a wide-ranging amd in-depth discussion of the economy and financial markets in light of the increasingly evident tensions between the forces of deflation and the countervailing inflationary measures taken by central bankers all over the world.


1-Incrementum Inflation SignalThe proprietary Incrementum inflation signal vs. inflation-sensitive assets – click to enlarge.


Over the past year the first cracks in the post GFC echo bubble have become increasingly visible, with the big downturn in China’s stock market, the ongoing collapse in commodity prices and emerging market currencies and beginning weakness in junk bonds.

Everything points to the situation becoming even more “interesting” (in the Chinese curse sense) over coming months.


2-China money supply growthChina’s money supply growth (M1 and M2) continues to weaken – click to enlarge.


Regular readers of this blog will be familiar with many of the topics that were discussed, as we often write about them in these pages as well. The quarterly debate of the advisory board in addition to this provides the perspective of Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek (the managers of the fund), as well as board members Zac Bharucha, Dr. Frank Shostak, Rahim Taghizadegan and Jim Rickards.


3-AMS growth differentialsMoney supply growth differential between the US and the eurozone and the EURUSD rate, from Dr. Shostak’s October AAS FX report – click to enlarge.


The transcript of the discussion can be downloaded here (pdf).


Charts by: Incrementum, ASE, St. Louis Federal Reserve Research




Emigrate While You Can... Learn More




Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.


Bitcoin address: 12vB2LeWQNjWh59tyfWw23ySqJ9kTfJifA


Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • “In America Money Does Grow on Trees”
      Full Commitment This week provided additional confirmation that America is fully committed to a program of currency destruction.  Decades of terminal intelligence have gotten us to this special place.  We will have more on this in a moment.  But first some words on being fully committed.   Say hello to the provider of bacon... lots of bacon, in this case. [PT]   We have never gutted a hog.  But we hear it is a bloody mess.  The volume of blood that gushes out –...

Support Acting Man

Austrian Theory and Investment


The Review Insider


Dog Blow

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts


Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from]



Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from]



Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from]



Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from]



USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from]


Mish Talk

    Buy Silver Now!
    Buy Gold Now!