EU Skepticism Still Growing in Germany

The recent state election in the Free State of Saxony already indicated as much: EU-skepticism is alive and well in Germany, even with the imminent threat from the EU’s sovereign debt and banking crisis on the back-burner.

This has now been further confirmed by the release of an Emnid survey (Emnid is a large polling company in Germany, comparable to Gallup), according to which 22% of German voters can imagine voting for the AdF (“Alternative für Deutschland”), an EU-skeptic party formed in February of 2013).

Note here that “could imagine to vote for” is not the same as “would vote for if the election were held tomorrow” – based on that, the party would receive only 6% of the nation-wide vote, which is however a clear improvement over the actual result in the last parliamentary election. Note that the party received 7% in the European election, which was a quite respectable, though not sensational result.

 

eu-wahl_hr00.05

European election 2014: the AfD received a respectable 7% of the vote

 

If the party plays its cards right, it could be well on the way to transforming itself from a much derided fringe party into a major political force. In many ways, its ascent seems comparable to that of UKIP in the UK. Given that the survey was concluded on September 3, the most recent ECB decision hasn’t influenced the result, so it should be expected that support for the AfD has in the meantime solidified further. Apart from a handful of ivory tower Keynesian economists, no-one in Germany is in favor of more money printing by the ECB.

As in many other countries, the major hot button issue is unfortunately the populist topic of immigration restrictions, something the party is likely to emphasize in light of its popularity with voters. However, other major planks of the party’s program apparently also resonate with German voters. Here is an overview of some of the survey responses regarding prominent AfD issues and the party itself:

 

83% of respondents agree that immigration must be subject to strict rules

45% of respondents agree that as a general principle, families with three children (which the AfD propagates) would be a good thing

33% believe Germany doesn’t need the euro

23% expect the party to play an important role in German politics in the future, 71% still disagree with that notion

64% disagree with the assertion that the AfD is a far-right party, 17% agree.

 

To the above we would note that the while the AfD certainly represents “bourgeois” viewpoints, it is definitely not a “far right” party. The mainstream press tried to stick it with this label based on its stance on immigration, a fate also suffered by UKIP. However, there is a strong qualitative difference between parties like UKIP and the AfD and France’s Front National (FN), which can genuinely be classified as being “far right”.

It is noteworthy in this context that UKIP refused to join a coalition with the FN in Brussels, in spite of the fact that this potentially meant passing on millions in euros in funding (however, UKIP eventually managed to form the Europe of Freedom and Democracy faction, by snatching a defector from the FN). The AfD likewise is not in the same faction in Brussels as the FN, but is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists group, which includes the UK’s Tories (incidentally, as Mish reports, the FN’s leader Marine Le Pen would win in a presidential election against Mr. Hollande if it were held today).

 

Conclusion:

There is considerable political push-back against the EU’s centralizers now. Even if EU-skeptical parties are unable to gain majorities, their growing support is likely to influence the policies of mainstream parties. Established parties must fear that they their support will erode more and more. In Germany, the once strong social democrats (SPD) have already become a smallish party (recent survey see its support crumbling ever further), while the FDP (liberals), a small party that has been a mainstay of post WW 2 Germany, has almost been wiped out. Whether this will lastingly influence the centralization process and weaken the powers of Brussels remains to be seen, but it is a start.

 

3-format20AfD leader Bernd Lücke in front of an election poster. The inscription reads: “Draghi gambles, you pay”.

(Photo credit: DPA)

 

 

 

Emigrate While You Can... Learn More

 


 

 
 

Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.

   

Bitcoin address: 12vB2LeWQNjWh59tyfWw23ySqJ9kTfJifA

   
 

One Response to “German Opinion Poll: 22% Can Imagine Voting for AfD”

  • John Galt III:

    Immigration in Europe is twofold. Germans don’t object to Poles coming to Germany by EU rules to learn the language and work. They do object to Muslims moving in, not working, taking advantage of the welfare benefits and then walling off parts of German cities to outsiders who don’t believe in Sharia. You have to be barking mad to want your cities to be like this, but the left in all European countries have no problem with this. Why? Muslims are the most hard core leftist voting bloc there is. When Hollande won, he got 93% of the Muslim vote. See page 9

    http://opinionlab.opinion-way.com/dokumenty/Sondage_jour_de_vote_T2_SOCIOLOGIE_DU_VOTE_2_1.pdf

    Every European country has similar voting results. Don’t think Obama doesn’t understand this. Hence the open Mexican border and the State Department claiming every Muslim is a “political refugee”.

Your comment:

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • As the Madness Turns
      A Growing Gap The first quarter of 2019 is over and done.  But before we say good riddance.  Some reflection is in order.  To this we offer two discrete metrics.  Gross domestic product and government debt.   US nominal GDP vs total federal debt (in millions of USD) – government debt has exceeded  total economic output for the first time in Q4 2012 and since then its relative growth trajectory has increased – and it seems the gap is set to widen further....
  • A Trip Down Memory Lane – 1928-1929 vs. 2018-2019
      Boom Times Compared It has become abundantly clear by now that the late 2018 swoon was not yet the beginning of the end of the stock market bubble – at least not right away. While money supply growth continues to decelerate, the technical underpinnings of the rally from the late December low were actually quite strong – in particular, new highs in the cumulative NYSE A/D line indicate that it was broad-based.   Cumulative NYSE A/D line vs. SPX – normally the A/D line...
  • Long Term Stock Market Sentiment Remains as Lopsided as Ever 
      Investors are Oblivious to the Market's Downside Potential This is a brief update on a number of sentiment/positioning indicators we have frequently discussed in these pages in the past. In this missive our focus is exclusively on indicators that are of medium to long-term relevance to prospective stock market returns. Such indicators are not really useful for the purpose of market timing -  instead they are telling us something about the likely duration and severity of the bust that...
  • Debt Growth and Capital Consumption - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      A Worrisome Trend If you read gold analysis much, you will come across two ideas. One, inflation so-called (rising consumer prices) is not only running much higher than the official statistic, but is about to really start skyrocketing. Two, buy gold because gold will hedge it. That is, the price of gold will go up as fast, or faster, than the price of gold.   CPI monthly since 1914, annualized rate of change. In recent years CPI was relatively tame despite a vast increase in the...
  • Unsolicited Advice to Fed Chair Powell
      Unsolicited Advice to Fed Chair Powell American businesses over the past decade have taken a most unsettling turn.  According to research from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, as of November 2018, non-financial corporate debt has grown to more than $9.1 trillion [ed note: this number refers to securitized debt and business loans, other corporate liabilities would add an additional $11 trillion for a total of $20.5 trillion].   US non-financial corporate...
  • The Liquidity Drought Gets Worse
      Money Supply Growth Continues to Falter Ostensibly the stock market has rallied because the Fed promised to maintain an easy monetary policy. To be sure, interest rate hikes have been put on hold for the time being and the balance sheet contraction (a.k.a.“quantitative tightening”) will be terminated much earlier than originally envisaged. And yet, the year-on-year growth rate of the true broad money supply keeps declining noticeably.   The year-on-year growth rates of...
  • What Were They Thinking?
      Learning From Other People's Mistakes is Cheaper One benefit of hindsight is that it imparts a cheap superiority over the past blunders of others.  We certainly make more mistakes than we’d care to admit.  Why not look down our nose and acquire some lessons learned from the mistakes of others?   Bitcoin, weekly. The late 2017 peak is completely obvious in hindsight... [PT]   A simple record of the collective delusions from the past can be quickly garnered from...
  • The Gold-Silver Ratio Continues to Rise - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Is Silver Hard of Hearing? The price of gold inched down, but the price of silver footed down (if we may be permitted a little humor that may not make sense to metric system people). For the gold-silver ratio to be this high, it means one of two things. It could be that speculators are avoiding the monetary metals and metal stackers are depressed. Or that something is going on in the economy, to drive demand for the metals in different directions.   As a rule the gold silver...
  • The Effect of Earnings Season on Seasonal Price Patterns
      Earnings Lottery Shareholders are are probably asking themselves every quarter how the earnings of companies in their portfolios will turn out. Whether they will beat or miss analyst expectations often seems akin to a lottery.   The beatings will continue until morale improves... [PT]   However, what is not akin to a lottery are the seasonal trends of corporate earnings and stock prices. Thus breweries will usually report stronger quarterly earnings after the...
  • Bankrupting Coffee Shops - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Coffee, Milk and Gold Last week was holiday-shorted due to Good Friday (it’s not an official holiday in the US, but it is in the UK. And this week’s report is a day late due to Easter Monday). The price of gold dropped $15, but the price of silver rose ¢4. Perhaps silver traders got word that we are paying interest on silver, which gives people a reason to hold silver? J   A silver bar plus interest...  [PT]   The discussion in the opening essay [which can be...
  • Kashmir: The Constant Conflict
      Threats of Nuclear War On February 26, 2019, the Indian Air Force, for the first time since 1971, conducted a raid inside Pakistan, and allegedly hit a terrorist training camp, killing more than 250 terrorists. Pakistan showed photographs of damage to a tree or two. According to Pakistani officials, no one died and no infrastructure was damaged.   Mirage 2000 warplane of the Indian Air Force in medias res. [PT] Photo credit: hindustantimes.com   It is hard to...

Support Acting Man

Austrian Theory and Investment

j9TJzzN

The Review Insider

Archive

Dog Blow

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

Mish Talk

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!