The New Incrementum/Erste Bank Gold Report

Our good friends Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek of the Incrementum Fund in Liechtenstein have just published the latest annual “In Gold We Trust” report for 2014.

Several of the themes developed in last year's report are updated, inter alia the interplay between private sector deleveraging and the inflationary policy  employed by central banks against it, as well as the scenario and ratio analysis for evaluating gold.

The report overall presents the most comprehensive overview of the fundamental and technical backdrop on gold and gold stocks one is likely to find anywhere and contains interesting and valuable information of both a theoretical and practical nature.

As always, it is a great read no gold aficionado can afford to miss. The extended Incrementum version of the report can be downloaded here.






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Dear Readers!

You may have noticed that our so-called “semiannual” funding drive, which started sometime in the summer if memory serves, has seamlessly segued into the winter. In fact, the year is almost over! We assure you this is not merely evidence of our chutzpa; rather, it is indicative of the fact that ad income still needs to be supplemented in order to support upkeep of the site. Naturally, the traditional benefits that can be spontaneously triggered by donations to this site remain operative regardless of the season - ranging from a boost to general well-being/happiness (inter alia featuring improved sleep & appetite), children including you in their songs, up to the likely allotment of privileges in the afterlife, etc., etc., but the Christmas season is probably an especially propitious time to cross our palms with silver. A special thank you to all readers who have already chipped in, your generosity is greatly appreciated. Regardless of that, we are honored by everybody's readership and hope we have managed to add a little value to your life.


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6 Responses to “In Gold We Trust, 2014”

  • mic:

    Pater I would like a post on “liquidity swap agreements”.
    Do you think this could become important?

    From the article
    “Apart from inflating central bank balance sheets, many additional potentially
    inflationary measures have been taken recently, including liquidity swap
    agreements. Simply put, central banks thereby create unlimited credit lines
    with each other…. This is especially
    relevant for the dollar liabilities of banks outside of the US. Banks can thus
    borrow US dollars directly from the ECB, BoJ, SNB, etc., and the respective
    central banks swap their own currencies with the Fed. This ensures that
    there is guaranteed and de facto unlimited dollar liquidity. This results in
    an increasing convergence of monetary policy, with central banks
    losing sovereignty over the domestic money supply, since they must
    make any amount demanded by foreign commercial banks available.
    According to Thorsten Polleit, currency sovereignty is thereby de
    facto rescinded.”

  • 23571113:

    In the last three years, this report has consistently failed in its gold’s price 12-month target: the 2011 12-month target was $2000; the 2012 12-month target was $2000; the 2013 12-month target was $1480. It states a “long term” price target of $2300, but does not give any indication what “long term” means — does it mean 30 years?

    • roger:

      To be fair, in 2011 it came quite close with gold hitting $1911. As for what “long term” means, it definitely means more than 3 years. 10 years is more like it.

      • jimmyjames:

        Calling prices within time frames is a tough business .. 2 wrong calls out of the 3 you mentioned might not be so bad if you look at the big picture .. I wonder how they called it prior to those last 3 reports ..
        Maybe they nailed 10 out of 13 or some such number since the start of the bull market .. I don’t know .. but .. it would be interesting to find that out ..


        Thanks for posting these reports AM ..

  • Calculus:

    I certainly trust it!

    Thanks for the report Ronald and Mark.

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