Selected Charts Updated

Below is a selection of our customary update of credit market charts: CDS on various sovereign debtors and banks, bond yields, euro basis swaps and a few other charts. Charts and price scales are color coded (readers should keep the different price scales in mind when assessing 4-in-1 charts). Where necessary we have provided a legend for the color coding below the charts. Prices are as of Friday's close.


We have recently not updated these charts as frequently as before, because frankly, not a whole lot has happened lately. There is little point in constantly updating charts that barely move. During times of market stress or whenever extraordinary moves catch our eye, we will usually try to keep our readers in the loop in a timely manner. CDS on the usual suspects have finally caught a bid late last week, which should be no surprise: as we have mentioned, September is a month filled with potential pitfalls for the eurocracy's project of keeping Spain in one piece and the common currency afloat.

We once again include Nomura's China Leading Index in today's helping of charts, which has clearly rolled over now, which was to be expected. However, South Korea's trade balance with China has improved again. 

 


 




5 year CDS on Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain – click for better resolution.






5 year CDS on France, Belgium, Ireland and Japan – click for better resolution.




5 year CDS on Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia and Slovakia – Slovenia remains in focus – click for better resolution.






5 year CDS on Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Turkey – drifting lower again after the presumably war-rumor induced spike – click for better resolution.







Three month, one year, three year and five year euro basis swaps – still improving – click for better resolution.


 



10 year government bond yields of Italy (generic bid price, generic gross yield is at 5.72%), Greece, Portugal and Spain – ticking up a bit – click for better resolution.


 





Austria's 10 year yield (green), UK gilts yield (yellow), Ireland's 9 year yield (white) and the price of the Greek 2 year note (orange) – 'safe haven' bonds catch a bid again – click for better resolution.







US (orange line) and euro area (white line) inflation expectations and the gold price (yellow line) – click for better resolution.







The trade balance between South Korea and China rebounds in favor of Korea following the steep dive seen in late 2011 and again earlier this year – click for better resolution.







Nomura's nine-component leading index for China (CLI, white line), the Hang Seng Index (orange line) and the Shanghai Composite (yellow line). None of this looks particularly inspiring at this time, but the most noteworthy thing on this chart is the fact that the CLI has now clearly rolled over from a third lower high since the 2007 peak. It is no longer a question if it will happen – click for better resolution.




 

The HUI index compared to gold.  Something for gold bugs to worry about: while gold has broken above lateral resistance, the HUI has not yet done so – click for better resolution.




The HUI-Gold ratio has broken above the steep downtrend channel in which is was confined for many months. The breakout is tentative for now and there is still a lot of overhead resistance – click for better resolution.







 


Charts by: Bloomberg, StockCharts



 

 

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