Precious Metals
The Sage Does a 180
The big news in the monetary metals is that Warren Buffett — famed disliker of gold — sold bank stocks to buy gold mining shares. What is interesting to us is not that we think he has any special powers to predict the gold price. After all, he famously bet on silver, and lost.
GOLD, daily, over the past two years. The Sage is a bit late to the party, but his entry confirms that the sector is now entering the “recognition phase” – the stage at which the investoriat-at-large realizes something is afoot. [PT]
Explosive Days in Silver
The silver market witnessed another explosive day!
At midnight (in London), the price of the metal was $26.90. By 9pm, it had rocketed up to $28.95, a gain of 7.6%. This is not normal.
But then, we are not in a normal world.
After several years of going nowhere and a downside fake-out in March this year, silver has come to life rather dramatically… [PT]
On Monday, Silver got Scarcer – and Simpler
On 23 July, we said:
The action on 27 July was not.
Silver spot price vs. September basis
Gold’s Little Brother
Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver.
Silver, often referred to as the “little brother” of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to share with you.
Shiny large good delivery door stops made of silver – about to enter interesting seasonal phase. [PT]
The New In Gold We Trust Report is Here!
The In Gold We Trust 2020 report by our good friends Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek was released last week. It is the biggest and most comprehensive gold research report in the world. As always it contains a wealth of new material, as well as the traditional wide-ranging collection of charts and data that makes it such a valuable reference work for everything of interest to gold investors or indeed for anyone interested in precious metals (a download link to the report is provided below).
Left: casting gold bars. Right: using gold as a shield against assorted slings and arrows.
Incrementum Advisory Board Discussion of April 8, 2020 with Special Guest Rick Rule
The Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board held its quarterly meeting on April 8. This time renowned resource stock investor Rick Rule, the President and CEO of Sprott US Holdings Inc., joined the discussion as a special guest. As always, there is a download link to a transcript of the conference call in PDF format at the end of this post.
Rick Rule, CEO of Sprott US Holdings Inc., and renowned investor in the commodities sector.
Gold Sector Outperforms Broad Market
The gold sector is in an uptrend since September 2018. The initially rather labored move accelerated after a secondary low was established in May 2019 and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages were breached for the second time. Last week the two moving averages were once again overcome in the course of the post-crash rebound. Here is a chart showing the entire move since 2018:
After a rather harrowing decline in sympathy with the February-March stock market crash, the HUI has swiftly moved back to its previous high for the move and is now trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages again.
Big Moves, Widening Spreads
The big news this week was the drop in the prices of the metals (though we believe that it is the dollar which is going up), $57 and $1.81 respectively.
Despair at the Unjustly Injured Gold Bugs Anonymous meeting… [PT]
Bonanza Season
In the 18 December 2019 issue of Seasonal Insights I discussed the strong seasonal advance in precious metals around the turn of the year. In silver it begins in mid December and continues until the end of February. A roughly similar pattern can be observed in platinum and palladium, while seasonal buoyancy is at least to some degree evident in gold as well.
Long-term silver and platinum seasonal charts from the late 2019 issue of Seasonal Insights : the seasonally strongest phase lasts from mid December until late February. [PT]
An Unloved Sector
We rarely discuss individual stocks in these pages, but we make an exception now and then when we spot exceptional opportunities. This time the reason is actually more mundane: the vast majority of gold exploration stocks failed to benefit from the rally in precious metals prices last year. As a result many of them came under even greater pressure in the tax loss selling season at the end of the year. We made a list of such stocks late last year – a download link to the PDF document is provided below this post. Here is an example of such a stock:
ATAC (ATADF), one of many exploration stocks that came under selling pressure in last year’s tax loss selling period.
GDP – A Poor Measure of “Growth”
Last week the prices of the metals rose $35 and $0.82. But, then, the price of a basket of the 500 biggest stocks rose 62. The price of a barrel of oil rose $1.63. Even the euro went up a smidgen. One thing that did not go up was bitcoin. Another was the much-hated asset in the longest bull market. We refer to the US Treasury.
BofA Merrill Lynch high yield master II option-adjusted spread: on Dec. 23 it tightened to the lowest level of 2019, fairly close to its post-crisis low established in 2018. This seemingly signals that risk is very small – in reality, risk is probably extremely high. [PT]
Plans and Consequences
You are probably already getting into the holiday spirit, perhaps you are even under a little stress. But the turn of the year will soon be here – an occasion to review the past year and make plans for the new one. Many people are doing just that – and their behavior is creating the strongest seasonal rally in the precious metals markets.
Anonymous industrial stackers showing off their freshly purchased silver hoard. [PT]
Austrian Theory and Investment
Realtime Charts
Gold in USD:
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
Gold in EUR:
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif)
Silver in USD:
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
Platinum in USD:
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/platinum/t24_pt_en_usoz_2.gif)
USD - Index:
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)
