On Politics
Numbers from Bizarro-World
The past few months have been really challenging for anyone invested in gold or silver; for me personally as well. Despite serious warning signs in the economy, staggering debt levels and a multitude of significant geopolitical threats at play, the rally in risk assets seemed to continue unabated.
Bizarro-World intrudes into our reality, courtesy of central banks. [PT]
Mud Volcanoes
There are numerous explanations for just what in the heck is going on with the economy. Some are good. Many are bad. Today we’ll do our part to bring clarity to disorder…
Two data series it is worth paying attention to at the moment: the unemployment rate (U3) and initial claims. As the chart at the top shows, when the former makes a low it is time to worry about the economy. Low points in the U3 UE rate slightly lead the beginning of recessions. Claims on the other hand are near coincident indicators of the stock market, this is to say, lows in initial claims tend to happen within a time period of four to six weeks surrounding major stock market peaks (in most cases they lead slightly, but small lags have occasionally occurred as well). Note: neither indicator confirms an imminent turning point as of yet – initial claims would e.g. have to rise to around 300k in order to do so. The same is true of other major recession indicators, their most recent readings do not yet confirm that the business cycle is about to turn down. However, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that indicates such a downturn may soon be confirmed, including recent market moves (i.e., deteriorating stock prices and rising credit spreads). [PT]
Yosemite Sam Gets Worried About Federal Debt
In a talk which garnered little attention, one of the Deep State’s prime operatives, National Security Advisor John Bolton, cautioned of the enormous and escalating US debt.
Deep State operative John Bolton, a.k.a. Yosemite Sam [PT]
Photo credit: Mark Wilson / Getty Images
How to Blow $9 Billion
The life cycle of capital follows a wide-ranging succession. It is imagined, produced, consumed, and destroyed. How exactly this all takes place involves varying and infinite undulations.
The Stroh Brewery in Detroit. The company provided an example of how wealth that has been accumulated over generations can be completely destroyed due to just a handful of really bad decisions. [PT]
Political Correctness Indoctrination
[ed note: we are posting this belatedly as it was originally supposed to be published on Thanksgiving Day. Unfortunately your editor was out of commission… but MN Gordon’s article is still worth reading. – PT]
Ordinary ideals of Americana range as far and wide as the North American continent. The valued conviction of one American vastly differs from that of another. For example, someone from the Mid-Atlantic may have little connection with someone from the Midwest. Their connection with Cascadia may be even less.
Socrates thinking at students and tourists in front of the Academy of Athens [PT]
Remaining Focused
A rousing display of diversions this week assured the American populace was looking every which way but right under its collective nose. Midterm elections. White House spats with purveyors of fake news. The forced resignation of Attorney General Sessions…
Old drug warrior (otherwise recused) on his way home to Alabama…
Economic Man Threatens to Leave You Alone if Elected
This one is mainly for readers residing in that glorious water source for California commonly known as Colorado. In case you are not aware of it yet, Roger “Economic Man” Barris, an occasional contributor to this site, is running for Congress in Colorado on a Libertarian Party ticket. We will briefly explain why you should vote for Roger, but first two pictures:
Roger Barris, Libertarian Party candidate for the House of Representatives, 2nd district.
Schemes and Shams
Man’s willful determination to resist the natural order are in vain. Still, he pushes onward, always grasping for the big breakthrough. The allure of something for nothing is too enticing to pass up.
From the “displays of disbelief, revealing touching old-fashioned notions” file… [PT]
Going All In
All people, of both good and questionable character, share a singular talent. They excel at taking something that’s tolerable in moderation, and then pushing it to the outer limits of absurdity. Why live with restraint when you can get radical?
A fairly famous stretch of LA riverbed graffiti… [PT]
Photo credit: saber
Smug Central Planners
Looking back at the past decade, it would be easy to conclude that central planners have good reason to be smug. After all, the Earth is still turning. The “GFC” did not sink us, instead we were promptly gifted the biggest bubble of all time – in everything, to boot. We like to refer to it as the GBEB (“Great Bernanke Echo Bubble”) in order to make sure its chief architect is not forgotten.
Naturally, we were premature in calling for the pompes funèbres and the grave diggers in order to inter the GBEB in late March, but the revival in US markets was a muted one and the funeral rites certainly continued in numerous emerging markets.
Image credit: Sharon Hatley
End of the Road
The confluence of factors that influence market prices are vast and variable. One moment patterns and relationships are so pronounced you can set a cornerstone by them. The next moment they vanish like smoke in the wind. One thing that makes trading stocks so confounding is that the buy and sell points appear so obvious in hindsight. When examining a stock’s price chart over a multi-year duration the wave movements appear to be almost predictable.
The fascinating obviousness of hindsight – it is now perfectly clear when one should have bought AMZN. Unfortunately it wasn’t quite as clear in real time. [PT]
Glitches on the Road to MAGA
While the farcical Kavanaugh confirmation hearings dominated the news cycle for the past couple of weeks, little mention was made of a disturbing economic headline – the August US trade deficit. Despite all the bluster from the Trump Administration about “winning trade wars” and “trade wars are easy”, America’s trade imbalances for August were the highest ever and its deficit with its most contentious partner – China – reached an all-time high.
Bi-directional trade bazooka [PT]
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A Golden Renaissance – Precious Metals Supply & Demand
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A Global Dearth of Liquidity
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The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency
US Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Slow Down Not to belabor the obvious too much, but in light of the recent sharp rebound, the stock market “panic window” is almost certainly closed for this year.* It was interesting that an admission by Mr. Powell that the central planners have not the foggiest idea about the future which their policy is aiming to influence was taken as an “excuse” to drive up stock prices. Powell's speech was regarded as dovish. If it actually was,...
The Zealous Pursuit of State Sponsored Wealth Destruction
How to Blow $9 Billion The life cycle of capital follows a wide-ranging succession. It is imagined, produced, consumed, and destroyed. How exactly this all takes place involves varying and infinite undulations. The Stroh Brewery in Detroit. The company provided an example of how wealth that has been accumulated over generations can be completely destroyed due to just a handful of really bad decisions. [PT] One generation may produce wealth, while the...
Debt, Death, and the US Empire
Yosemite Sam Gets Worried About Federal Debt In a talk which garnered little attention, one of the Deep State’s prime operatives, National Security Advisor John Bolton, cautioned of the enormous and escalating US debt. Deep State operative John Bolton, a.k.a. Yosemite Sam [PT] Photo credit: Mark Wilson / Getty Images Speaking before the Alexander Hamilton Society, Bolton warned that current US debt levels and public obligations posed an “economic...
The Bien Pensants Agree: The World Doesn’t Need Gold – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
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How To Give Thanks Like Socrates
Political Correctness Indoctrination [ed note: we are posting this belatedly as it was originally supposed to be published on Thanksgiving Day. Unfortunately your editor was out of commission... but MN Gordon's article is still worth reading. - PT] Ordinary ideals of Americana range as far and wide as the North American continent. The valued conviction of one American vastly differs from that of another. For example, someone from the Mid-Atlantic may have little connection...
Paper Lanterns
Mud Volcanoes There are numerous explanations for just what in the heck is going on with the economy. Some are good. Many are bad. Today we’ll do our part to bring clarity to disorder... Two data series it is worth paying attention to at the moment: the unemployment rate (U3) and initial claims. As the chart at the top shows, when the former makes a low it is time to worry about the economy. Low points in the U3 UE rate slightly lead the beginning of recessions....
Trump or Seasonality: Which One is Going to Prevail in the Dollar's Late Year Surge?
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Where is the PPT? Precious Metals Supply and Demand
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The Big Picture: Paper Money vs. Gold
Numbers from Bizarro-World The past few months have been really challenging for anyone invested in gold or silver; for me personally as well. Despite serious warning signs in the economy, staggering debt levels and a multitude of significant geopolitical threats at play, the rally in risk assets seemed to continue unabated. Bizarro-World intrudes into our reality, courtesy of central banks. [PT] In fact, I was struggling with this seeming paradox myself. As I...
Austrian Theory and Investment
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