Commodities

     

 

 

A Month with a Bad Reputation

A certain degree of nervousness tends to suffuse global financial markets when the month of October approaches. The memories of sharp slumps that happened in this month in the past – often wiping out the profits of an entire year in a single day – are apt to induce fear. However, if one disregards outliers such as 1987 or 2008, October generally delivers an acceptable performance.

 

The road to October… not much happens at first – until it does. [PT]

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

Positive Energy

By now, late September of 2018, it has become increasingly evident that something big is about to happen. What exactly that may be is anyone’s guess.  But, whatever it is, we suggest you prepare for it now… before it is too late.

 

Art auction energizer: Norman Rockwell’s portrait of John Wayne. You can’t go wrong shelling out top dollar for me, pilgrim, can you? [PT]

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

The Biggest Crashes in History Happened in September and October

In the last installment of Seasonal Insights we wrote about the media sector – an industry that typically tends to perform very poorly in the month of August. Upon receiving positive feedback, we decided to build on this topic. This week we are are discussing several international markets that tend to be weak during September and will look at what drives this recurring pattern.

 

Mark Twain, a renowned specialist in how not to get rich, opines on dangerous months to invest in the stock market. We should mention that he didn’t have access to the Seasonax app. [PT]

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Data Interpretation Problems

Oddly enough, these days it has become more difficult to interpret positioning data. We get more granular data than before, such as e.g. the disaggregated commitments of traders reports (CoT – even if they are still released with a three day delay), but at the same time the goal posts in futures markets have shifted greatly. Former extremes in positioning have been left in the dust with the advent of QE (and the associated desperate “hunt for yield”) and the adoption of large scale systematic trading. Here is a glaring example illustrating the point:

 

Speculator net positions in crude oil futures: after decades in which net long positions rarely exceeded 100,000 contracts, a new post GFC era record has been set in the speculative position at 740,000 contracts net long in early February 2018.

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Regulated to Death

The price of gold fell $13, and that of silver $0.23. Perspective: if you’re waiting for the right moment to buy, the market now offers you a better than it did last week. If you wanted to sell, this wasn’t a good week to wait. Which is your intention, and why?

 

We are rather late posting Keith’s supply & demand update this week, so we felt we might as well add an updated chart of the divergences we recently discussed. This week gold has dropped quite a bit further, but the bullish divergences between gold and gold equities have stubbornly persisted. Such market behavior is virtually always meaningful (at least we cannot remember the last time when it hasn’t been). [PT]

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Chest Bumps

One of the more extraordinary things that investors have seen in living memory is unfolding at this precise moment. This goes for business leaders, money managers, veteran Wall Streeters, value investors, 401(k) holders, momentum traders, FX guys, gold bugs, technical gurus, chartists, pork belly speculators, quants, astrologists, Larry Summers, put option sellers, dweebs and geeks, millennial index fund enthusiasts, and everyone in between.

 

Pork belly speculators were among those waking up to a nasty surprise as China retaliated by imposing its own list of tariff duties. Soybean traders were also forced to rapidly adjust to an unexpected change in export fortunes (see further below). Farmers are presumably none too happy at this point. [PT]

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Contrarian Investment Opportunities in Natural Resources

Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable has recently interviewed Sprott U.S. Holdings CEO Rick Rule, a well known specialist and “old hand” in the natural resource space. This is quite a wide-ranging and interesting interview, so we decided to present it to our readers. Below you find a summary and our comments on the main topics discussed, a video/podcast of the interview,  as well as a download link to a PDF file of the transcript for later reference.

 

Sprott US Holdings CEO Rick Rule

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Oil is Different

Last week, we showed a graph of rising open interest in crude oil futures. From this, we inferred — incorrectly as it turns out — that the basis must be rising. Why else, we asked, would market makers carry more and more oil?

 

Crude oil acts differently from gold – and so do all other industrial commodities. What makes them different is that the supply of industrial commodities held in storage as a rule suffices to satisfy industrial demand only for a few months at most. By contrast, gold inventories are in theory large enough to satisfy fabrication and industrial demand for 70 years (“in theory” because this is under the assumption that there is no monetary or investment demand for gold). This is in fact one of the reasons why gold is the money commodity. [PT]

Photo credit: Getty Images

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Crude Oil Market Structure – Extremes in Speculative Net Long Positions

On May 28, markets were closed so this Report is coming out a day later than normal. The price of gold rose nine bucks, and the price of silver 4 pennies. With little action here, we thought we would write 1,000 words’ worth about oil. Here is a chart showing oil prices and open interest in crude oil futures.

 

WTIC (West Texas Intermediate crude) price and futures open interest – the vast increase in OI was largely the result of a breathtaking surge in speculative buying. [PT]

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Meandering Prices

Prices rise and prices fall.  So, too, they fall and rise.  This is how the supply and demand sweet spot is continually discovered – and rediscovered. When supply exceeds demand for a good or service, prices fall. Conversely, when demand exceeds supply, prices rise.

 

Supply and demand (the curves usually shown in such charts are unrealistic, as bids and offers in the market are arranged in discrete steps). [PT]

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Copper vs. Oil

The Q1 2018 meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board took place on January 24, about one week before the recent market turmoil began. In a way it is funny that this group of contrarians who are well known for their skeptical stance on the risk asset bubble, didn’t really discuss the stock market much on this occasion. Of course there was little to add to what was already talked about extensively at previous meetings. Moreover, the main focus was on the topic presented by this meeting’s special guest, Gianni Kovacevic.

 

Copperbank chairman Gianni Kovacevic

 

Read the rest of this entry »

     

 

 

Correlation vs. Causation

A very good visual correlation between the yearly percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI) and the yearly percentage change in the price of oil seems to provide support to the popular thinking that future changes in price inflation in the US are likely to be set by the yearly growth rate in the price of oil (see first chart below).

 

Gushing forth… a Union Oil Co. oil well sometime early in the 20th century

 

Read the rest of this entry »

Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Is the Canary in the Gold Mine Coming to Life Again?
      A Chirp from the Deep Level Mines Back in late 2015 and early 2016, we wrote about a leading indicator for gold stocks, namely the sub-sector of marginal - and hence highly leveraged to the gold price - South African gold stocks. Our example du jour at the time was Harmony Gold (HMY) (see “Marginal Producer Takes Off” and “The Canary in the Gold Mine” for the details).   Mining engineer equipped with bio-sensor Photo credit: Hulton Archive   As we write these...
  • Fed Credit and the US Money Supply – The Liquidity Drain Accelerates
      Federal Reserve Credit Contracts Further We last wrote in July about the beginning contraction in outstanding Fed credit, repatriation inflows, reverse repos, and commercial and industrial lending growth, and how the interplay between these drivers has affected the growth rate of the true broad US money supply TMS-2 (the details can be seen here: “The Liquidity Drain Becomes Serious” and “A Scramble for Capital”).   The Fed has clearly changed course under Jerome Powell...
  • Are Credit Spreads Still a Leading Indicator for the Stock Market?
      A Well-Established Tradition Seemingly out of the blue, equities suffered a few bad hair days recently. As regular readers know, we have long argued that one should expect corrections in the form of mini-crashes to strike with very little advance warning, due to issues related to market structure and the unique post “QE” environment. Credit spreads are traditionally a fairly reliable early warning indicator for stocks and the economy (and incidentally for gold as well). Here is a...
  • The Gold Standard: Protector of Individual Liberty and Economic Prosperity
      A Piece of Paper Alone Cannot Secure Liberty The idea of a constitution and/or written legislation to secure individual rights so beloved by conservatives and among many libertarians has proven to be a myth. The US Constitution and all those that have been written and ratified in its wake throughout the world have done little to protect individual liberties or keep a check on State largesse.   Sound money vs. a piece of paper – which is the better guarantor of liberty?...
  • Fed President Kashkari Hears Voices – Are They Lying?
      Orchestrated Larceny The government continues its approach towards full meltdown. The stock market does too. But when it comes down to it, these are mere distractions from the bigger breakdown that is bearing down upon us.   Prosperity imbalance illustrated. The hoi-polloi may be getting restless. [PT]   Average working stiffs have little time or inclination to contemplate gibberish from the Fed. They are too worn out from running in place all day to make much...
  • US Stocks and Bonds Get Clocked in Tandem
      A Surprise Rout in the Bond Market At the time of writing, the stock market is recovering from a fairly steep (by recent standards) intraday sell-off. We have no idea where it will close, but we would argue that even a recovery into the close won't alter the status of today's action – it is a typical warning shot. Here is what makes the sell-off unique:   30 year bond and 10-year note yields have broken out from a lengthy consolidation pattern. This has actually surprised us, as...
  • Switzerland, Model of Freedom & Wealth Moving East – Interviews with Claudio Grass
      Sarah Westall Interviews Claudio Grass Last month our friend Claudio Grass, roving Mises Institute Ambassador and a Switzerland-based investment advisor specializing in precious metals, was interviewed by Sarah Westall for her Business Game Changers channel.   Sarah Westall and Claudio Grass   There are two interviews, both of which are probably of interest to our readers. The first one focuses on Switzerland with its unique, well-developed system of  direct...
  • Exaggerated Economic Growth of the Third World
      Exciting Visions of a Bright Future Fund Managers, economists and politicians agree on the exciting future they see in the Third World. According to them, the engine of the world’s economic growth has moved from the West to what were once the poverty-stricken societies of the Third World. They feel mushy about the rapid increase in the size of the Middle Class in the Third World, and how poverty is becoming history.   GDP of India vs. UK in 2016 – crossing...
  • Choking On the Salt of Debt
      Life After ZIRP Roughly three years ago, after traversing between Los Angeles and San Francisco via the expansive San Joaquin Valley, we penned the article, Salting the Economy to Death.  At the time, the monetary order was approach peak ZIRP.   Our boy ZIRP has passed away. Mr. 2.2% effective has taken his place in the meantime. [PT]   We found the absurdity of zero bound interest rates to have parallels to the absurdity of hundreds upon hundreds of miles of...
  • Why You Should Expect the Unexpected
      End of the Road The confluence of factors that influence market prices are vast and variable.  One moment patterns and relationships are so pronounced you can set a cornerstone by them.  The next moment they vanish like smoke in the wind. One thing that makes trading stocks so confounding is that the buy and sell points appear so obvious in hindsight.  When examining a stock’s price chart over a multi-year duration the wave movements appear to be almost predictable.   The...
  • How Dangerous is the Month of October?
      A Month with a Bad Reputation A certain degree of nervousness tends to suffuse global financial markets when the month of October approaches. The memories of sharp slumps that happened in this month in the past – often wiping out the profits of an entire year in a single day – are apt to induce fear. However, if one disregards outliers such as 1987 or 2008, October generally delivers an acceptable performance.   The road to October... not much happens at first - until it...
  • Yield Curve Compression - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Hammering the Spread The price of gold fell nine bucks last week. However, the price of silver shot up 33 cents. Our central planners of credit (i.e., the Fed) raised short-term interest rates, and threatened to do it again in December. Meanwhile, the stock market continues to act as if investors do not understand the concepts of marginal debtor, zombie corporation, and net present value.   The Federal Reserve – carefully inching forward to Bustville   People...

Support Acting Man

Item Guides

Austrian Theory and Investment

j9TJzzN

The Review Insider

Archive

Dog Blow

350x200

THE GOLD CARTEL: Government Intervention on Gold, the Mega Bubble in Paper and What This Means for Your Future

Realtime Charts

 

Gold in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Gold in EUR:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Silver in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

Platinum in USD:

[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

 


 

USD - Index:

[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]

 

Mish Talk

 
Buy Silver Now!
 
Buy Gold Now!
 

Oilprice.com