Author Archives: Michael

     

 

 

Shifting Patterns

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have discussed Bitcoin’s seasonal pattern in the course of a year. In this issue I will show an analysis of the returns of bitcoin on individual days of the week.

 

Bitcoin, daily – since bottoming in early December, BTC has advanced quite a bit. It remains an excellent trading sardine. [PT]

 

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Welcome to Acting Man's Forum!

It has come to our attention that the Voy Forum, that has inter alia provided a space where the so  -called 'Kitco refugees' could congregate and exchange their views, has run into grave problems. Either the forum is not loading at all, or if it does load, it has become impossible for users to log in.

 


 

You will find access to post after free registration, the forum button is located in the upper menu bar … or click here.

 


 

We have therefore decided to provide an alternative for this forum on the Acting Man site (other readers of our site are of course more than welcome to use it as well). This can either become a permanent home for the 'refugees' if they so wish, or a temporary one they can use in times of need (such as right now).

Similar to how the Voy forum worked, it will simply thread messages in chronological order. Essentially it will use the same process that is currently in use in our comments section, but a separate link to the forum page will be at all times visible at the top of the home page. Users who are not yet registered with us will have to register, as we need to guard against spammers (please see our privacy policy – your e-mail address will definitely never be passed on to third parties by us).

Depending on whether it catches on, we may at a later stage upgrade the forum page. Please be aware that if several links to outside sources are posted at once, the posts sometimes need to await approval (this is also to guard against spam). As a workaround, it may therefore sometimes be better to not post too many links at once in a single message.

 

Post away!

 


 

     

 


Euro Hysteria At A Fever Pitch

Monday was so chock-full with at times bewildering news items that one hardly knows where to begin. We decided therefore to focus on what one might call a case of official hysterics. The increasingly dubious mental state of the personae dramatis indicates that it would be reasonable to expect their unhinged mental disposition to influence  decision making at the highest level.

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A Debt Agreement Is In The Works – But Does It Really Matter?

Reportedly, Congress has now agreed on a plan to raise the US debt ceiling, or is close enough to agreement to make it a mere formality (at the time of writing anyway), which if true should remove this particular 'trigger event' from consideration for the markets.

In all likelihood this will lead to a number of  short term trend reversals, but it remains open to question whether some of the recent short term trends aren't the beginning of new medium term trends. As we noted last week, our impression was that stocks and bonds were mostly driven by the recognition that the economy is softening rather than the debt ceiling debate, as it has in any case been deemed unlikely that an agreement wouldn't be arrived at in a timely fashion. Some markets like e.g. gold and the 'save haven' currencies (i.e., the yen and the Swiss franc) were probably supported by the debt ceiling debate and t-bills came under pressure as money market funds investing in t-bills experienced large outflows last week (this underscores that there is indeed a difference between money and credit instruments, even the 'near cash' ones).

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…  in a 2:45 long video

Clarke and Dawes, in inimitable fashion, make the debt crisis accessible to everyone, by explaining exactly what the problem is. A friend sent us this video earlier today, and we felt we had to help spreading it, since it really hits the nail on the head. There's nothing that says we can't laugh while the ship sinks – it's better than pulling out one's hair (or what's left of it, depending).

 

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Most read in the last 20 days:

  • How the Fed Robs You of Your Life
      Fiat Currency Rankings - From Bad to Worse Today, as we step into the New Year, we reach down to turn over a new leaf.  We want to make a fresh start.  We want to leave 2019’s bugaboos behind. But, alas, lying beneath the fallen leaf, like rotting food waste, is last year’s fake money.  We can’t escape it.  But we refuse to believe in its permanence.   This is what “monetary stability in the Fed-administered fiat money regime looks like: in the year the Fed was...
  • Wealth Consumption vs. Growth - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      GDP – A Poor Measure of “Growth” Last week the prices of the metals rose $35 and $0.82. But, then, the price of a basket of the 500 biggest stocks rose 62. The price of a barrel of oil rose $1.63. Even the euro went up a smidgen. One thing that did not go up was bitcoin. Another was the much-hated asset in the longest bull market. We refer to the US Treasury.   BofA Merrill Lynch high yield master II option-adjusted spread: on Dec. 23 it tightened to the  lowest level...
  • Geopolitical Shocks and Financial Markets
      Involuntary Early Retirement of a Middle Eastern General The procession of news through the week – namely that chronicling the aftermath of the targeted drone strike and killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani – advanced with an agreeable flow.  The reports at the start of the week were that Orange Man Bad had spun up a Middle Eastern mob of whirling dervishes beyond recall. World War III was imminent.   The recently expired general, when he was still among the quick...

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