Author Archives: Claudio Grass

     

 

 

Numbers from Bizarro-World

The past few months have been really challenging for anyone invested in gold or silver; for me personally as well. Despite serious warning signs in the economy, staggering debt levels and a multitude of significant geopolitical threats at play, the rally in risk assets seemed to continue unabated.

 

Bizarro-World intrudes into our reality, courtesy of central banks. [PT]

 

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Introductory Remarks: The “Anti-Politician” Godfrey Bloom, by PT

Most of our readers will probably remember former UKIP chief whip and European Parliament representative Godfrey Bloom. As far as we know, he is the only politician who ever raised the issue of the workings of the fractionally reserved central bank-directed monetary system in the EU parliament. This system is of course central to the phenomenon of the recurring boom-bust sequences plaguing the global economy.

 

Godfrey Bloom (left) and interviewer Claudio Grass

 

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Claudio Grass in Conversation with Todd “Bubba” Horwitz

Todd Horwitz is known as Bubba and is chief market strategist of  Bubba Trading.com. He is a regular contributor on Fox, CNBC, BNN, Kitco, and Bloomberg. He also hosts a daily podcast, ‘The Bubba Show.’ He is a 36-year member of the Chicago exchanges and was one of the original market makers in the SPX.

 

Todd “Bubba” Horwitz and Claudio Grass

 

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A Strong First Half of the Year, Followed by Another Retreat

In early 2016 gold had a big bull run. The precious metal rose close to 25% this year, pushed higher in a summer rally that peaked on July 10th. Gold experienced a bumpy ride over the remainder of the summer though, as investors became increasingly concerned about a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Uncertainty returned to gold market and has intensified further since then.

 

chart-1-gold-annotatedInitially, gold rallied sharply in 2016, but then retreated again in the second half as concerns over Fed rate hikes and the impact of Mr. Trump’s election victory have pushed bond yields and the US dollar up in the short term.

 

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The U.S. Elections: The Latest Crack in the System

The 2016 U.S. presidential elections are unprecedented: I don’t believe we have ever witnessed before a campaign year so toxic, so dangerously divisive and full of ad hominem attacks. Both camps have vilified the opposition and their followers, creating a schism in society. There has been no rational dialogue on the issues that truly concern the American public.

 

votersThe schism

Illustration by : M. C. Escher

 

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Lurid Media Coverage

In recent months, more and more of our clients and friends from overseas are asking us whether it is safe to travel to Europe. These fears are understandable, given the media coverage of the tragic events that occurred this year. The press painted a sinister and truly graphic picture of Europe as a war zone, as a target of global terrorism.

 

the-scenes-inside-brussels-airport-after-the-attackInside the Brussels airport shortly after the bomb blast in March.

Photo credit: Pavel Ohal

 

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Mounting Resistance

Thousands of people recently demonstrated in Brussels against free trade deals negotiated by the EU. This happened just days before a meeting of EU trade ministers in Bratislava last Friday, which was considered the last push to salvage the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the United States. Not only is Europe divided on the deal, but the talks have been extremely secretive.

 

in-the-darkThis placard carried by anti-TTIP protesters in Brussels goes to the heart of the problem, namely the secrecy characterizing the deal.

Photo via flushthetpp.org

 

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Renewed Escalation

This summer witnessed a renewed escalation between Russia and Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of sending saboteurs to attack Russian troops, targeting “critical infrastructure”. Kiev denied the allegations and claimed Russia’s “fantasy” was nothing but a false pretense to launch a “new invasion”.

 


August 10: Russian president Putin announces that there was an altercation involving a group of Ukrainian saboteurs at the border with Crimea. We note he appeared to be genuinely angry about it.

 

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The Rationale for Interventionism

It has been almost eight years since former U.S. President George W. Bush warned the world that “without immediate action by Congress, America could slip into a financial panic and a distressing scenario would unfold.”

 

rescue party before destroying villageSeptember 2008: a solemn-faced “rescue party” of bureaucrats and politicians (from left to right: Ben Bernanke, GW Bush, Hank Paulson and Donald Cox) announces that the village needs to be destroyed in order to save it (“normally, we’re all for free market capitalism, just not this time”).

Photo credit: Credit Larry Downing / Reuters

 

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The “Third Way”

 

“Stealth, intrigue, subversion, and the deception of never calling socialism by its right name” – George Bernard Shaw

 

fabain-2520zAn emblem of the Fabian Society: a wolf in sheep’s clothing

 

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Crumbling Stability

In the past few months, we have witnessed a series of defining events in modern political history, with Britain’s vote to exit the EU, (several) terror attacks in France and Germany, as well as the recent attempted military coup in Europe’s backyard, Turkey.

 

TurmoilGlobal stability continues to be undermined

 

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A Fragile System

 

Ronald StoeferleRonald Stoeferle, managing partner and investment manager at Incrementum AG, and probably best known to our readers as  co-author of the “In Gold We Trust” report, the most widely read gold report in the world

Photo credit: Elke Mayr / WB

 

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Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Is the Fed Secretly Bailing Out a Major Bank?
      Prettifying Toxic Waste The promise of something for nothing is always an enticing proposition. Who doesn’t want roses without thorns, rainbows without rain, and salvation without repentance?  So, too, who doesn’t want a few extra basis points of yield above the 10-year Treasury note at no added risk?   The yield-chasing hamster wheel... [PT]   Thus, smart fellows go after it; pursuing financial innovation with unyielding devotion.  The underlying...
  • Japan's Yield Curve Control Regime is Coming to America
      Monetary Lunacy, Nipponese Version Earlier this month, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda commented that Japan’s central planners are considering a 50-year government bond issue as a long-term means of putting a floor under super-long interest rates.  How this floor would be placed is extremely suspect; we will have more on this in a moment.  But first, the dual benefits – according to Japan’s central planners...   Kuroda-san: the man with a plan, or...
  • Gold, Togas and Very Fine Suits - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Yields and the “Everything Bubble” Last week the price of gold was up $9, and the price of silver was up $0.18. This week, our thought turns to a cherished old saw. Gold bugs often tell us that the purchasing power of gold is constant. An ounce of gold could have purchased, they say, a fine toga in Roman times. Just as it could buy a fine suit today.   This magnificent toga will set you back an ounce, pilgrim. Just think of the impression you'll make....
  • Repo Market, QE4 (a.k.a. Not QE), the Fed and Gold
      Incrementum Advisory Board Discussion of 23 Oct 2019 In late October the Advisory Board of the Incrementum Fund held its quarterly meeting (a transcript is available for download at the end of this post). This time the board was joined by special guest Dan Oliver, the manager of Myrmikan Capital and president of the Committee for Monetary Research & Education.  Myrmikan inter alia publishes excellent and quite original research on gold which we hereby highly...
  • Eating the Seed Corn - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Misguided Incentives The price of gold subsided a few bucks, and the price of silver blipped a few pennies. Not much action last week, groceries neither pumped into nor drained out of this asset class. Those who look to exchange capital goods for groceries need to find a different asset.   The best-laid plans... [PT]   Not even the S&P 500 Index provided a gain in groceries this week. It certainly wasn’t the much-vaunted store of groceries, Bitcoin, which...
  • The Credit Market Powder Keg
      Credit Market Bifurcation By all accounts, credit markets remain on fire. 2019 is already a record year for corporate bond issuance, beating the previous record set in 2017 by a sizable margin. Demand for the debt of governments and government-related issuers remains extremely strong as well, despite non-existent and often even negative issuance yields. Even now, with economic activity clearly slowing and numerous  threats to the post-GFC recovery looming on the horizon, the occasional...
  • The Fed’s Answer to the Ghastly Monster of its Creation
      The Bubble Machine The launch angle of the U.S. stock market over the past decade has been steep and relentless. The S&P 500, after bottoming out at 666 on March 6, 2009, has rocketed up over 370 percent. New highs continue to be reached practically every day.   S&P 500 weekly, since the low of 2009. A party of roaring 20s proportion in terms of duration, extent and end point valuations (a post-war inflation episode triggered a devastating bear market from November...
  • Gold Moves from Vault A to Vault B - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Poland's Gold and the Conspiracy Theorists The price of gold was up enough to buy a bottle of Two Buck Chuck wine, and the price of silver was up enough to buy a wooden nickel (well, not enough to buy a real nickel nickel).   Poland's gold bars are packaged by employees of G4S International Logistics to be transported from London to Poland. Poland's gold was originally transferred to London at the beginning of WW II, when Stalin and Hitler invaded and partitioned the country...

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