Author Archives: Claudio Grass

     

 

 

Numbers from Bizarro-World

The past few months have been really challenging for anyone invested in gold or silver; for me personally as well. Despite serious warning signs in the economy, staggering debt levels and a multitude of significant geopolitical threats at play, the rally in risk assets seemed to continue unabated.

 

Bizarro-World intrudes into our reality, courtesy of central banks. [PT]

 

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Introductory Remarks: The “Anti-Politician” Godfrey Bloom, by PT

Most of our readers will probably remember former UKIP chief whip and European Parliament representative Godfrey Bloom. As far as we know, he is the only politician who ever raised the issue of the workings of the fractionally reserved central bank-directed monetary system in the EU parliament. This system is of course central to the phenomenon of the recurring boom-bust sequences plaguing the global economy.

 

Godfrey Bloom (left) and interviewer Claudio Grass

 

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Claudio Grass in Conversation with Todd “Bubba” Horwitz

Todd Horwitz is known as Bubba and is chief market strategist of  Bubba Trading.com. He is a regular contributor on Fox, CNBC, BNN, Kitco, and Bloomberg. He also hosts a daily podcast, ‘The Bubba Show.’ He is a 36-year member of the Chicago exchanges and was one of the original market makers in the SPX.

 

Todd “Bubba” Horwitz and Claudio Grass

 

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A Strong First Half of the Year, Followed by Another Retreat

In early 2016 gold had a big bull run. The precious metal rose close to 25% this year, pushed higher in a summer rally that peaked on July 10th. Gold experienced a bumpy ride over the remainder of the summer though, as investors became increasingly concerned about a potential rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Uncertainty returned to gold market and has intensified further since then.

 

chart-1-gold-annotatedInitially, gold rallied sharply in 2016, but then retreated again in the second half as concerns over Fed rate hikes and the impact of Mr. Trump’s election victory have pushed bond yields and the US dollar up in the short term.

 

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The U.S. Elections: The Latest Crack in the System

The 2016 U.S. presidential elections are unprecedented: I don’t believe we have ever witnessed before a campaign year so toxic, so dangerously divisive and full of ad hominem attacks. Both camps have vilified the opposition and their followers, creating a schism in society. There has been no rational dialogue on the issues that truly concern the American public.

 

votersThe schism

Illustration by : M. C. Escher

 

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Lurid Media Coverage

In recent months, more and more of our clients and friends from overseas are asking us whether it is safe to travel to Europe. These fears are understandable, given the media coverage of the tragic events that occurred this year. The press painted a sinister and truly graphic picture of Europe as a war zone, as a target of global terrorism.

 

the-scenes-inside-brussels-airport-after-the-attackInside the Brussels airport shortly after the bomb blast in March.

Photo credit: Pavel Ohal

 

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Mounting Resistance

Thousands of people recently demonstrated in Brussels against free trade deals negotiated by the EU. This happened just days before a meeting of EU trade ministers in Bratislava last Friday, which was considered the last push to salvage the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the United States. Not only is Europe divided on the deal, but the talks have been extremely secretive.

 

in-the-darkThis placard carried by anti-TTIP protesters in Brussels goes to the heart of the problem, namely the secrecy characterizing the deal.

Photo via flushthetpp.org

 

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Renewed Escalation

This summer witnessed a renewed escalation between Russia and Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of sending saboteurs to attack Russian troops, targeting “critical infrastructure”. Kiev denied the allegations and claimed Russia’s “fantasy” was nothing but a false pretense to launch a “new invasion”.

 


August 10: Russian president Putin announces that there was an altercation involving a group of Ukrainian saboteurs at the border with Crimea. We note he appeared to be genuinely angry about it.

 

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The Rationale for Interventionism

It has been almost eight years since former U.S. President George W. Bush warned the world that “without immediate action by Congress, America could slip into a financial panic and a distressing scenario would unfold.”

 

rescue party before destroying villageSeptember 2008: a solemn-faced “rescue party” of bureaucrats and politicians (from left to right: Ben Bernanke, GW Bush, Hank Paulson and Donald Cox) announces that the village needs to be destroyed in order to save it (“normally, we’re all for free market capitalism, just not this time”).

Photo credit: Credit Larry Downing / Reuters

 

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The “Third Way”

 

“Stealth, intrigue, subversion, and the deception of never calling socialism by its right name” – George Bernard Shaw

 

fabain-2520zAn emblem of the Fabian Society: a wolf in sheep’s clothing

 

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Crumbling Stability

In the past few months, we have witnessed a series of defining events in modern political history, with Britain’s vote to exit the EU, (several) terror attacks in France and Germany, as well as the recent attempted military coup in Europe’s backyard, Turkey.

 

TurmoilGlobal stability continues to be undermined

 

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A Fragile System

 

Ronald StoeferleRonald Stoeferle, managing partner and investment manager at Incrementum AG, and probably best known to our readers as  co-author of the “In Gold We Trust” report, the most widely read gold report in the world

Photo credit: Elke Mayr / WB

 

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Most read in the last 20 days:

  • Silver “Scarcifies” – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      On Monday, Silver got Scarcer – and Simpler On 23 July, we said:   “Well, it’s complicated.”   The action on 27 July was not.   Silver spot price vs. September basis   Notice the big drop in the basis starting around midnight (London time). It falls from over 7% to under 2%. To refresh: Basis = Future(bid) - Spot(ask) For the first two and half hours, the spot price is not moving. So, the only way the basis can drop is if the price...
  • Silver Explodes — But Why? Precious Metals Supply and Demand
      Explosive Days in Silver The silver market witnessed another explosive day! At midnight (in London), the price of the metal was $26.90. By 9pm, it had rocketed up to $28.95, a gain of 7.6%. This is not normal. But then, we are not in a normal world.   After several years of going nowhere and a downside fake-out in March this year, silver has come to life rather dramatically... [PT]   The Republicans are spending like drunken Modern Monetary Sailors. And...
  • Best Laid Schemes
      A Really Neat Bridge   But, Mousie, thou art no thy-lane, In proving foresight may be vain; The best-laid schemes o’ mice an’ men Gang aft agley, An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain, For promis’d joy! – Robert Burns, To a Mouse, on Turning Her Up in Her Nest With the Plough (in extract), 1785     Installation of the final cable support pipes on the Gerald Desmond bridge replacement. Here is a drone video of the project. [PT] Photo by...
  • The Dollar Is Dying
      Insulting the Captive Audience This week, while perusing the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet figures, we came across a rather curious note.  We don’t know how long the Fed’s had this note posted to its website.  But we can’t recall ever seeing it.  The note reads as follows:   “The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has expanded and contracted over time.  During the 2007-08 financial crisis and subsequent recession, total assets increased significantly from $870...

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