Author Archives: Dimitri Speck

     

 

 

A Month with a Bad Reputation

A certain degree of nervousness tends to suffuse global financial markets when the month of October approaches. The memories of sharp slumps that happened in this month in the past – often wiping out the profits of an entire year in a single day – are apt to induce fear. However, if one disregards outliers such as 1987 or 2008, October generally delivers an acceptable performance.

 

The road to October… not much happens at first – until it does. [PT]

 

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Looking for Opportunities

The last time we discussed Bitcoin was in May 2017 when we pointed out that Bitcoin too suffers from seasonal weakness in the summer. We have shown that a seasonal pattern in Bitcoin can be easily identified. More than a year has passed since then and readers may wonder why we have not addressed the topic again. There is a simple reason for this: the lack of extensive historical data for cryptocurrencies in combination with their extreme volatility.

 

The three Magi: Melchior tries to move with the times. [PT]

 

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The Biggest Crashes in History Happened in September and October

In the last installment of Seasonal Insights we wrote about the media sector – an industry that typically tends to perform very poorly in the month of August. Upon receiving positive feedback, we decided to build on this topic. This week we are are discussing several international markets that tend to be weak during September and will look at what drives this recurring pattern.

 

Mark Twain, a renowned specialist in how not to get rich, opines on dangerous months to invest in the stock market. We should mention that he didn’t have access to the Seasonax app. [PT]

 

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Alternating Seasonal Patterns

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights we have talked to you about biotech and pharmaceutical companies as industries that withstand the traditional summer weakness in stock markets. Six weeks ago, we have shown that gold is an asset one can purchase in the summer months to offset this phenomenon.

 

Warning: don’t let the media mesmerize you in the summer months – the stocks of media companies are a veritable seasonal minefield in August to October. [PT]

Illustration via crabo.ru

 

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The Details Plotted

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I showed you the statistics associated with the popular truism “sell in May and go away” in the countries with the eleven largest stock markets. The comparison divided the calendar year into a summer half-year from May to October and a winter half-year from November to April. In all eleven countries, the winter half-year outperformed the summer half-year. As announced on that occasion, here are the details for all countries that were reviewed.

 

October meeting after not selling in May

 

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A Truism that is Demonstrably True

Most people are probably aware of the adage “sell in May and go away”. This popular seasonal Wall Street truism implies that the market’s performance is far worse in the six summer months than in the six winter months. Numerous studies have been undertaken in this context particularly with respect to US stock markets, and they  confirm that the stock market on average exhibits relative weakness in the summer.

 

Look at the part we highlighted – it is downright eerie, Mark Twain somehow knew! [PT]

 

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In Other Global Markets the “Turn-of-the-Month” Effect Generates Even Bigger Returns than in the US

The “turn-of-the-month” effect is one of the most fascinating stock market phenomena. It describes the fact that price gains primarily tend to occur around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically far less profitable for investors.

 

Good vs. bad seasonal timing…   [PT]

 

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A Well Known Seasonal Phenomenon in the US Market – Is There More to It?

I already discussed the “turn-of-the-month effect” in a previous issues of Seasonal Insights, see e.g. this report from earlier this year. The term describes the fact that price gains in the stock market tend to cluster around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for investors.

 

Due to continual monetary inflation in the fiat money system and the “survivor bias” inherent in stock market index construction, nominal stock prices are rising 67% of the time. Nevertheless the long term uptrend in nominal prices is subject to countless recurring seasonal patterns. The market as a whole on average tends to generate the bulk of its gains only at certain times.  [PT]

 

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Anatomy of Waterfall Declines

In an article published in these pages in early March, I have discussed the similarities between the current chart pattern in the S&P 500 Index compared to the patterns that formed ahead of the crashes of 1929 and 1987, as well as the crash-like plunge in the Nikkei 225 Index in 1990. The following five similarities were decisive features of these crash patterns:

 

– a rally along a clearly discernible trendline on a linear chart

– an accelerated move toward a peak at the end of the advance

– an initial decline testing the trendline

– a counter-trend rebound

– a break of the trendline

 

After the trendline was broken, waterfall declines began in the three antecedents of 1929, 1987 and the Nikkei in 1990. In early March, I pointed out that the decisive development was the break of the trendline on the second test. What has happened since then?

 

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Stretched to the Limit

There are good reasons to suspect that the bull market in US equities has been stretched to the limit. These include inter alia: high fundamental valuation levels, as e.g. illustrated by the Shiller P/E ratio (a.k.a. “CAPE”/ cyclically adjusted P/E); rising interest rates; and the maturity of the advance.

 

The end of an era – a little review of the mother of modern crash patterns, the 1929 debacle. In hindsight it is both a bit scary and sad, in light of the important caesura it represented. In many ways the roaring 20s were the last hurrah of a world in its death throes, a world that never managed to make a comeback. The massive expansion of the State that had begun in the years just before WW1 resumed in full force as soon as the post-war party on Wall Street ended. The worried crowd that formed in the streets around the NYSE in the week of the crash may well have suspected that the starting gun to profound change had just been fired. [PT]

 

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Peculiar Behavior

As I have shown in previous issues of Seasonal Insights, various financial instruments are demonstrating peculiar behavior in the course of the week: the S&P 500 Index is typically strong on Tuesdays, Gold on Fridays and Bitcoin on Tuesdays (similar to the S&P 500 Index).

 

The quest for profitable foresight…[PT]

 

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Well Known Seasonal Trends

Readers are very likely aware of the “Halloween effect” or the Santa Claus rally. The former term refers to the fact that stocks on average tend to perform significantly worse in the summer months than in the winter months, the latter term describes the typically very strong advance in stocks just before the turn of the year. Both phenomena apply to the broad stock market, this is to say, to benchmark indexes such as the S&P 500 or the DJIA.

 

Summer and winter in the stock market…  [PT]

Illustration via CNNMoney

 

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