Author Archives: Bradley Sadler

     

 

 

Moody’s & Reserve Bank of Australia Warn of Increasing Mortgage Arrears and Looming Apartment Defaults

Last Wednesday Moody’s reported that mortgage arrears continue to rise across Australia, particularly in the mining states of WA & NT:

 

Moody’s report notes that mortgage performance deteriorated in all eight Australian states and territories over the year to 31 May 2016, reaching 1.50% from 1.34% at 31 May 2015. And, in Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, the 30+ delinquency rate climbed to the highest levels since Moody’s records began in 2005, while in South Australia, the delinquency rate was just 0.1 percentage point below the state’s record-high reached in April 2013.
Western Australia fared the worst in terms of mortgage performance over the year to 31 May 2016, with the 30+ delinquency rate increasing by 0.69 percentage points to 2.33%. This measure has been on the rise in the state since 2014, following the end of the mining boom. Relatively poorer economic and housing market conditions in Western Australia contributed to the historically high level of mortgage delinquencies.

 

chart-1-moodys-delinqueny-rate-001In Australian regions dependent on the mining boom, delinquencies and defaults have risen sharply. It seems highly likely that the bust is eventually going to spread to the large Eastern and Southern coastal cities given the degree of overvaluation based on fundamental criteria

 

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