Author Archives: Evil Speculator

     

 

 

Dismal Number Bombardment

The May NFP jobs just dropped half an hour ago and the numbers were was so dismal that it left a smoking impact crater across equity futures. Apparently we added 38k jobs which was several standard deviations below the median forecast of 160k.

 

trouble_in_paradiseSomeone just threw a hand grenade M33 into the trench – and as is well known, that grenade can have a strong effect on morale

Photo credit: AP

 

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Yellen Looms

We’ve got a bit of a double whammy going on today in that it’s the last session before the long weekend plus Yellen is scheduled to speak late in the day. So it’s probably fair to say that few of us are going to be doing much on the trading front and I wouldn’t be surprised if most of you are already on the way out.

 

hitting_the_roadOff we go…

 

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Cold Spells

My favorite quarter of the year is slowly drawing to a close, with Memorial Day in the U.S. marking the beginning of the long awaited vacation season. It’s been a long winter and we haven’t really seen much of a spring over here in the Mediterranean to be honest.

 

spring_landscape-1000x600The spring, as it is supposed to be…

Photo credit: Achim Thomae

 

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Not Easy, But There Remains Potential

As equities continue to gyrate over respective medium term support levels I do not feel particularly tempted to get sucked into placing any haphazard directional plays.

 

king of blingThe King of Bling

Photo via picsofcelebrities.com

 

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Another Vega Crush Target

Macy’s (M) may not be anyone’s favorite place to shop these days, but its volatility curve is set up nicely for a vega crush campaign.  We’re going to look at two different ways to take advantage of M’s volatility term structure ahead of earnings (tomorrow morning before open).

 

macys1900-1000x740Macy’s store of yore

Image via Frank Leslie’s Illustrated Newspaper

 

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Operation Vega Crush Part II – Post Mortem

Before we get to the specifics of last week’s option campaigns, I wanted to cover a few interesting observations we made from our strategies this past week. In an effort to show how little risk is associated with these types of vega strategies, I actually believe we were too conservative this past week. While we made money on both campaigns we could have certainly done better had we decided to be just a bit more aggressive.

 

2016-05-09_debrief-1000x679Debriefing time

Photo via harringtonmuseum.org.uk

 

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Second Helping

The first round of our IV crush earnings plays was a resounding success and as there’s about a week’s worth of announcements left in this quarter we are pumped and ready for a second helping.

 

vega crushThe next round of Operation Vega Crush begins

Photo via artcarcentral.com

 

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Operation Volatility Crush – Post Mortem

[ed note: this is a follow-up to “Let’s Crush Some Volatility”, penned by the aptly named Ray the Options Executioner for the Evil Speculator]

Our introduction to earnings-based options strategies has started off with a bang. Actually, it’s hard to imagine a much better results for our first option campaigns. Granted, we’ve been doing this stuff behind the scenes for a while, and we expected the options strategies in FB and FSLR to succeed. Still, you gotta love when what happens is pretty much exactly what you predicted.

 

make_it_rainThe rainman

Photo credit: musictory.de

 

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Searching for Victims

If like me you were a Monty Python addict back in the days then you are probably familiar with the phrase ‘And now for something completely different’. As you probably know we’re in the midst of Q2 earnings season right now, and Jay The Executioner in collaboration with yours truly has been on the hunt for potential IV crush victims.

 

crushing_tank-1000x622A tragic victim of Operation Volatility Crush.

Photo via gdefon.ru

 

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Big Moves in Markets No-One is Paying Attention to

A lot of attention has been on equities and precious metals in the past week but the biggest movers right now are the softs [e.g. commodities like grains, oils, sugar, etc.).

 

wheat_field-1000x523We actually are in Kansas now, Dorothy!

Photo via agriculture.ks.gov

 

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Volatility over the Long Term

No matter if you are a hard nosed trader or a casual investor, every once in a while it’s advisable to detach yourself from the daily grind, sit back, grab a hot beverage, and parse through some long term charts. Although the don’t affect our daily entries here at Evil Speculator, they do give us a better view of what type of market we are navigating and thus how we may have to adjust our trading patterns.

 

2016-04-13_trainImage credit: Walt Disney Pictures

 

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