A Case of Highway Robbery
What if the savings in your bank account lost 55 percent of its value over the last 12 months? Would you be somewhat peeved? Would you transfer some of your savings to another currency?
USD-ARS, weekly. For several years the Argentine Peso has followed a certain pattern: it declines mildly, but steadily, with little volatility for long time periods, and then spikes in crash waves whenever a crisis situation comes to a head. In early 2011, it took roughly four pesos to buy one US dollar – which was already an enormous loss of value relative to the 1:1 exchange rate that prevailed under Argentina’s currency board prior to the government default and banking system collapse of 2001. When Mr. Macri was elected president, it was widely held that his market reforms would finally repair Argentina’s economy, which had been ruined by almost two decades of economic mismanagement and inflation under the previous Peronist administration. Alas, Macri made a mistake no Argentine government that gains the trust of foreign investors seems able to resist: he embarked on a big borrowing spree, much of it denominated in USD, until it became clear that the government would no longer be able to defend the peso or service its debt. Then he exacerbated his mistake by borrowing even more money from the IMF – which should be filed under “a movie we have seen before”. And just as had happened in that earlier escapade, his government is now likely to default on its IMF loan as well. Not surprisingly, the peso has collapsed – and in well-worn fashion Macri is now trying to save the village by destroying it and has introduced capital controls. [PT]
Brainwashed by Academe
Not a day goes by that doesn’t supply a new specimen of inane disclarity. Muddy ideas are dredged up from tainted minds like lumps of odorous pond muck. We do our part to clean up the mess, whether we want to or not.
No longer in demand: famous Enlightenment philosopher John Locke (1632–1704), who is widely considered the “Father of Liberalism” (classical liberalism, that is). [PT]
The Pointlessness of Negative Yields
If there are any virtues of debt instruments with negative yields we have yet to realize them. Certainly, we understand that as bond yields fall, bond prices rise, and bond investors are rewarded with capital appreciation. But when capital is appreciating as a consequence of negative yields, we suspect there is something fundamentally wrong with the capital itself.
Not only is the stock of negative-yielding debt at a new record high of almost $17 trillion, lately there has been a big surge in corporate debt sporting negative yields-to-maturity. [PT]
Not Adding Up
One of the more disagreeable discrepancies of American life in the 21st century is the world according to Washington’s economic bureaus and the world as it actually is. In short, things don’t add up. What’s more, the propaganda is so far off the mark, it is downright insulting.
Coming down from the mountain with the latest data tablet… [PT]
Suspicious Phrases
There are certain phrases – like “trust me” or “I got this” – that should immediately provoke one’s suspicion. When your slippery contractor tells you, “trust me, your kitchen renovation will be done before Christmas,” you should be wary. There is no way it will be done before late spring.
USD-CNH (offshore yuan) exchange rate – the support/resistance level at 7 finally breaks amid escalating trade war rhetoric. [PT]
Do You Hear a Bell Ringing?
The sun shines brightest across the North American continent as we enter summer’s dog days. Cold sweet lemonade is the refreshment of choice at ballparks and swimming holes alike. Many people drink it after cutting the grass, or whenever else a respite from the heat and some thirst quenching satisfaction is needed.
Regardless of whether companies were able to “beat estimates” (which as often happens, were revised lower just before the reporting season started), their actual Q2 results didn’t look very encouraging so far. The manufacturing sector in particular looks a bit frayed around the edges as the saying goes. [PT]
Realizing the Full Implications of the Forthcoming Catastrophe
“Facilis descensus Averno.” – Virgil (Publius Vergilius Maro)
Delivering Tomorrow’s Curses
Roman poet Virgil penned these words in his epic, The Aeneid, roughly a generation before the birth of Jesus of Nazareth. They can be loosely translated to, “the descent to hell is easy.” Those who’ve traversed this passage can attest to the veracity of this axiom.
Virgil reading the Aeneid to Augustus, Octavia and Livia. Contrary to what one might think at first blush, Octavia didn’t fall asleep because she was bored by it – rather, when Virgil recited Book Six, she fainted (the veracity of this account is not undisputed, but it’s a good story anyway). A little side note: Virgil caught a fever while returning from to Rome from Greece and died in Brundisium in 19 BC. It was Virgil’s wish that the poem be burned, but Augustus ordered his literary executors to preserve it and publish it with as few editorial changes as possible. Thus Augustus rescued the Aeneid for posterity. [PT]
Tending Towards Maximum Perversity
According to Finagle’s corollary to Murphy’s law, “Anything that can go wrong, will — at the worst possible moment.” Taken a degree further, per O’Toole’s corollary of Finagle’s law, and the second law of thermodynamics, “The perversity of the Universe tends towards a maximum.”
Murphy’s law in action… not even Murphy himself was safe from it. [PT]
A Good Story with Minor Imperfections
“If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there,” is a quote that’s oft misattributed to Lewis Carrol. The fact that there is ambiguity about who is behind this quote on ambiguity seems fitting. For our purposes today, the spirit of the quote is what we are after. We think it may help elucidate the strange and confusing world of fake money in which we all travel.
Consumer price index, y/y rate of change – the Fed is not satisfied with the speed at which monetary debasement raises everybody’s cost of living lately. And no, they don’t think said speed should be lowered. [PT]
Freedom and Apple Pie
The days are long and hot in the Northern Hemisphere when real American patriots raise the stars and stripes. Today the free and brave, with duty and self-sacrifice, begrudgingly accept federal holiday pay to stand tall upon their own two feet. Rugged individualism and uncompromising independence are essential to their character.
Independence day festivities…
A Distorted Landscape
One of the more remarkable achievements of fake money creation is that it distorts and disfigures the world in odd and uncanny ways. Dow (not quite) 27,000. Million dollar shacks. Over $13 trillion in subzero-yielding debt. You name it. Any and every disfiguration is possible with enough fake money.
The global stock of outstanding government bonds with negative yields-to-maturity reaches a new record high of more than $13 trillion – this is insanity writ large. [PT]
An Epic Folly for the Ages
Today we begin with a list. A partial list. And in no particular order…
Angela Merkel. Donald Tusk. Mario Draghi. Donald Trump. Jerome Powell. Shinzo Abe. Haruhiko Kuroda. Theresa May. Boris Johnson. Mark Carney. Xi Jinping. Emmanuel Macron. Vladimir Putin. Justin Trudeau. Juan Trump. And many, many more…
Politicians and bureaucrats of the modern age of statism and central planning… fighting a rearguard action doomed to fail. [PT]
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Austrian Theory and Investment
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