Remaining Focused
A rousing display of diversions this week assured the American populace was looking every which way but right under its collective nose. Midterm elections. White House spats with purveyors of fake news. The forced resignation of Attorney General Sessions…
Old drug warrior (otherwise recused) on his way home to Alabama…
Schemes and Shams
Man’s willful determination to resist the natural order are in vain. Still, he pushes onward, always grasping for the big breakthrough. The allure of something for nothing is too enticing to pass up.
From the “displays of disbelief, revealing touching old-fashioned notions” file… [PT]
Going All In
All people, of both good and questionable character, share a singular talent. They excel at taking something that’s tolerable in moderation, and then pushing it to the outer limits of absurdity. Why live with restraint when you can get radical?
A fairly famous stretch of LA riverbed graffiti… [PT]
Photo credit: saber
End of the Road
The confluence of factors that influence market prices are vast and variable. One moment patterns and relationships are so pronounced you can set a cornerstone by them. The next moment they vanish like smoke in the wind. One thing that makes trading stocks so confounding is that the buy and sell points appear so obvious in hindsight. When examining a stock’s price chart over a multi-year duration the wave movements appear to be almost predictable.
The fascinating obviousness of hindsight – it is now perfectly clear when one should have bought AMZN. Unfortunately it wasn’t quite as clear in real time. [PT]
Life After ZIRP
Roughly three years ago, after traversing between Los Angeles and San Francisco via the expansive San Joaquin Valley, we penned the article, Salting the Economy to Death. At the time, the monetary order was approach peak ZIRP.
Our boy ZIRP has passed away. Mr. 2.2% effective has taken his place in the meantime. [PT]
Orchestrated Larceny
The government continues its approach towards full meltdown. The stock market does too. But when it comes down to it, these are mere distractions from the bigger breakdown that is bearing down upon us.
Prosperity imbalance illustrated. The hoi-polloi may be getting restless. [PT]
Positive Energy
By now, late September of 2018, it has become increasingly evident that something big is about to happen. What exactly that may be is anyone’s guess. But, whatever it is, we suggest you prepare for it now… before it is too late.
Art auction energizer: Norman Rockwell’s portrait of John Wayne. You can’t go wrong shelling out top dollar for me, pilgrim, can you? [PT]
Happy Destiny
There’s great elation flowing from the various economic bureaus down through President Trump. They bring us good tidings. If you haven’t heard, here in the USA, we live, work, and play in the dazzle and delight of an economy in which GDP growth exceeds the unemployment rate.
The president has clearly had a hand in job creation. :) Seriously, there can be no doubt that aggregate economic activity has increased as a result of the measures the government has implemented, including deregulation, tax cuts and increased deficit spending. Note that the latter is offsetting the salutary effects of the other measures in the long run, even though government spending is added to GDP and therefore provides a near term boost to official “growth”. It is just difficult to tell how much of this growth consists of genuine wealth creation and how much of it is simply masking capital consumption. [PT]
Misadventures and Mishaps
Over the past decade, in the wake of the 2008-09 debt crisis, the impossible has happened. The sickness of too much debt has been seemingly cured with massive dosages of even more debt. This, no doubt, is evidence that there are wonders and miracles above and beyond 24-hour home deliveries of Taco Bell via Door Dash.
The global debtberg: at the end of 2017, it had grown to USD 237 trillion. Obviously this is by now a slightly dated figure, as debt issuance has continued with gay abandon this year. [PT]
A Fake Money World
The NASDAQ slipped below 8,000 this week. But you can table your reservations. The record bull market in U.S. stocks is still on. With a little imagination, and the assistance of crude chart projections, DOW 40,000 could be eclipsed by the end of the decade. Remember, anything and everything’s possible with enough fake money.
Driven by a handful of big cap tech companies, the Nasdaq Composite has made new highs – but the broad market (here shown in the form of the NYSE Index) has not even made it back to the January blow-off peak. It is a good bet the return of the average investor’s portfolio mirrors that of the latter. Such divergences are typically a sign of steadily weakening market internals which are seen near major trend changes. When such a glaring divergence in performance persistently fails to be invalidated and keeps dragging on for many months, it tends to be particularly concerning for the longer term outlook, Note that even more glaring divergences exist now between US stocks vs. European and EM stocks. Despite the fact that US economic indicators remain strong and no obvious recession warnings are evident, we have yet to see such large divergences resolve without a hiccup. Usually the hiccup turns out to be quite a doozy. [PT]
Squishy Fact Finding Mission
Today we begin with the facts. But not just the facts; the facts of the facts. We want to better understand just what it is that is provoking today’s ludicrous world. To clarify, we are not after the cold hard facts; those with no opinions, like the commutative property of addition. Rather, we are after the warm squishy facts; the type of facts that depend on what the meaning of ‘is’ is.
Fact-related pleas… [PT]
Financial Potemkin Village
A rising stock market has the illusory effect of masking the economy’s warts and blemishes. Who cares if incomes are stagnant when everyone’s getting rich off stocks? Certainly, winning wealth via the stock market beats working for it.
Learning from history, 2018 style [PT]
Most read in the last 20 days:
The Gold Debate – Where Do Things Stand in the Gold Market?
A Recurring Pattern When the gold price recently spiked up to approach the resistance area even Aunt Hilda, Freddy the town drunk, and his blind dog know about by now, a recurring pattern played out. The move toward resistance fanned excitement among gold bugs (which was conspicuously lacking previously). This proved immediately self-defeating - prices pulled back right away, as they have done almost every time when the slightest bit of enthusiasm emerged in the sector in recent...
Monetary U-Turn: When Will the Fed Start Easing Again? Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting Q1 2019
Special Guest Trey Reik and Board Member Jim Rickards Discuss Fed Policy On occasion of its Q1 meeting in late January, the Incrementum Advisory Board was joined by special guest Trey Reik, the lead portfolio manager of the Sprott Institutional Gold & Precious Metal Strategy at Sprott USA since 2015 [ed note: as always, a PDF of the complete transcript can be downloaded further below]. Trey Reik of Sprott USA. Also at the meeting, Jim Rickards, who is inter...
Acting Man Returns - A Brief Housekeeping Note
Pater Temporarily Keels Over Regular readers have no doubt noticed that the blog has fallen silent for around three weeks and may be wondering what has happened. In a nutshell, we were hospitalized. After a lengthy time period during which our health gradually but steadily deteriorated (we have complained about this previously), we finally keeled over. Thereupon we were forced to entrust the ruin that houses our mind to an experienced team of doctors (depicted below). A...
Watch Europe - Free Pass for the Elliott Wave European Financial Forecast
Europe at an Important Juncture European economic fundamentals have deteriorated rather noticeably over the past year - essentially ever since the German DAX Index topped out in January 2018. Now, European stock markets have reached an important juncture from a technical perspective. Consider the charts of the Euro-Stoxx 50 Index and the DAX shown below: The Euro-Stoxx 50 Index already peaked in early November 2017, the DAX followed suit in January 2018 – such divergent peaks...
Why Warren Buffett Should Buy Gold
Riding the Tailwinds of Fiat Money Inflation to Fame and Fortune Warren Buffett bought his first shares of stock when he was 11 years old. He saved up $114.75 and “went all in,” purchasing three shares of Cities Service preferred stock. The day was March 11, 1942 – nearly 77 years ago. Buffett recently reminisced about this purchase in his annual letter to shareholders: “I had become a capitalist, and it felt good.” The Oracle of Omaha – he was...
Fake Money’s Face Value Deceit
Not the Brightest Tool in the Shed Shane Anthony Mele stumbled off the straight and narrow path many years ago. One bad decision here. Another there. And he was neck deep in the smelly stuff. These missteps compounded over the years and also magnified his natural shortcomings. Namely, that he’s a thief and – to be polite – a moron. Over-educated he ain't: Shane Anthony Mele, whose expressive mug was captured by a Florida police photographer first in...
Rise of the Zombies - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
Rise of the Zombies - Precious Metals Supply and Demand Last week, the prices of gold and silver fell $35 and ¢70, respectively. But what does that mean (other than woe unto anyone who owned silver futures with leverage)? The S&P 500 index and the euro was up a bit, though the yuan was flat and copper was down. Most notably, the spread between Treasury and junk yields fell. If the central banks can lower the risk of default premium, they can make everything unicorns and...
Bitcoin Bottom Building
Defending 3,800 and a Swing Trade Play For one week, bulls have been defending the 3,800 USD value area with success. But on March 4th they had to give way to the constant pressure. Prices fell quickly to the 3,700 USD level. These extended times of range bound trading are typical for Bitcoin Bottom Building in sideways ranges. This 60 minute chart of Bitcoin shows (represented by the yellow candlestick wicks) how the bulls defended 3,800 USD : BTCUSDT 60 minute chart...
The Magic Doesn't Always Work - Precious Metals Supply and Demand
The Week Ends with a Surprise The weekly closing prices of the precious metals were up +$5 and +¢11. But this does not tell the full story of the trading action. Prices were dropping until Friday. More precisely, Friday 8am in New York, or 1pm in London. Gold and silver - back in demand on Friday... [PT] At that moment, a light cabal conspiring to jack the price struck traders began buying. The end result was the prices, especially of silver, rose on the day...
Intraweek Profit Opportunities
In 6 of 10 Countries a Single Day Outperforms the Entire Week! In the Seasonal Insights issue of 13 February 2019 I presented a study illustrating the power of intraweek effects. The article was entitled “S&P 500 Index: A Single Day Beats the Entire Week!” The result of the study: if one had been invested exclusively during a single day of the week since 2000 – namely on Tuesday – one would have outperformed a buy and hold strategy, beating the broad market. Moreover,...
Austrian Theory and Investment
Realtime Charts
Gold in USD:
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
Gold in EUR:
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif)
Silver in USD:
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
Platinum in USD:
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/platinum/t24_pt_en_usoz_2.gif)
USD - Index:
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)
