Numbers from Bizarro-World
The past few months have been really challenging for anyone invested in gold or silver; for me personally as well. Despite serious warning signs in the economy, staggering debt levels and a multitude of significant geopolitical threats at play, the rally in risk assets seemed to continue unabated.
Bizarro-World intrudes into our reality, courtesy of central banks. [PT]
A Rocky Road
The price of gold rose $26, and the price of silver rose $0.44. And bitcoin fell $560. Somebody should look into if the Fed and the Plunge Protection Team and the Bitcoin Banks are in cahoots to sell bitcoin naked-short…
No PPT for Bitcoin – after breaking a long-standing lateral support level, the cryptocurrency went into free-fall. You may notice the little remark in the annotation at the top of the chart: we believe BTC is highly likely to continue to lead the stock market, as it has done since the turn of the year. This is because both markets are under the sway of the same driver, namely rapidly weakening money supply growth. [PT]
Mud Volcanoes
There are numerous explanations for just what in the heck is going on with the economy. Some are good. Many are bad. Today we’ll do our part to bring clarity to disorder…
Two data series it is worth paying attention to at the moment: the unemployment rate (U3) and initial claims. As the chart at the top shows, when the former makes a low it is time to worry about the economy. Low points in the U3 UE rate slightly lead the beginning of recessions. Claims on the other hand are near coincident indicators of the stock market, this is to say, lows in initial claims tend to happen within a time period of four to six weeks surrounding major stock market peaks (in most cases they lead slightly, but small lags have occasionally occurred as well). Note: neither indicator confirms an imminent turning point as of yet – initial claims would e.g. have to rise to around 300k in order to do so. The same is true of other major recession indicators, their most recent readings do not yet confirm that the business cycle is about to turn down. However, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence that indicates such a downturn may soon be confirmed, including recent market moves (i.e., deteriorating stock prices and rising credit spreads). [PT]
Worldwide Liquidity Drought – Money Supply Growth Slows Everywhere
This is a brief update on money supply growth trends in the most important currency areas outside the US (namely the euro area, Japan and China) as announced in in our recent update on US money supply growth (see “Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency” for the details).
Nobody likes a drought. This collage illustrates why.
The Last Thing to be Left Standing – Alas, Not Yet
The price of gold was about unchanged this week, whereas that of silver fell another nine cents. All Serious Right Thinking people agree that the world does not need gold. Indeed our monetary system produces Great Moderations that are totally unlike the incredible volatility of the gold standard era. They wish they could kill all memory of gold as money.
Ben Bernanke, the inventor of the “Great Moderation” fairy tale, somehow felt compelled to explain in 2012 “why the world will never see another gold standard”. One day this will probably turn out to have been an unwise deployment of the word “never” – since is not exactly known for the accuracy of his forecasts, regardless of their time horizon. Although he dismissed gold as an unimportant residual of tradition, the very central planning agency he led at the time for some reason does keep quite a bit of gold under lock and key behind a 140 ton steel door, both for itself and similar agencies domiciled abroad. [PT]
A Plethora of Headaches
We hope the recent market turmoil is not giving our readers too much of a headache. As you are no doubt aware, the events of the last few weeks have made maneuvering around global markets rather difficult.
A less than happy NYSE floor trader [PT]
Photo crdit: Brendan McDermit
Yosemite Sam Gets Worried About Federal Debt
In a talk which garnered little attention, one of the Deep State’s prime operatives, National Security Advisor John Bolton, cautioned of the enormous and escalating US debt.
Deep State operative John Bolton, a.k.a. Yosemite Sam [PT]
Photo credit: Mark Wilson / Getty Images
How to Blow $9 Billion
The life cycle of capital follows a wide-ranging succession. It is imagined, produced, consumed, and destroyed. How exactly this all takes place involves varying and infinite undulations.
The Stroh Brewery in Detroit. The company provided an example of how wealth that has been accumulated over generations can be completely destroyed due to just a handful of really bad decisions. [PT]
US Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Slow Down
Not to belabor the obvious too much, but in light of the recent sharp rebound, the stock market “panic window” is almost certainly closed for this year.* It was interesting that an admission by Mr. Powell that the central planners have not the foggiest idea about the future which their policy is aiming to influence was taken as an “excuse” to drive up stock prices. Powell’s speech was regarded as dovish. If it actually was, then it was a really bad idea to buy stocks because of it.
Jerome Powell: a new species of US central banker – a seemingly normal human being in public that transforms into the dollar-dissolving vampire bat Ptenochirus Iagori Powelli when it believes it is unobserved.
Battles for Civilization
A major theme of my work — and raison d’etre of Monetary Metals — is fighting to prevent collapse. Civilization is under assault on all fronts.
Battling the barbarians at the gate… [PT]
Political Correctness Indoctrination
[ed note: we are posting this belatedly as it was originally supposed to be published on Thanksgiving Day. Unfortunately your editor was out of commission… but MN Gordon’s article is still worth reading. – PT]
Ordinary ideals of Americana range as far and wide as the North American continent. The valued conviction of one American vastly differs from that of another. For example, someone from the Mid-Atlantic may have little connection with someone from the Midwest. Their connection with Cascadia may be even less.
Socrates thinking at students and tourists in front of the Academy of Athens [PT]
The “Risk Asset” Dip Not Worth Buying is on its Way
The prices of the metals rose, gold by +$11 and silver by +$0.25. The question on everyone’s mind (including ours) is: what will cause a change in the gold price trend, or what will make gold go up in a large and durable way? And that leads to another way of looking at this question.
Here is a very good technical reason to adopt a constructive attitude toward gold despite the fact that its nominal price in USD terms is seemingly not going anywhere of late. By remaining fairly stable in recent weeks, gold is rising relative to the S&P 500 index (SPX). In other words, the purchasing power of gold is increasing – and not only relative to the stock market. Similar trend changes can be observed elsewhere (e.g. in gold vs. industrial commodities). We will soon discuss this in greater detail. [PT]
Most read in the last 20 days:
A Golden Renaissance – Precious Metals Supply & Demand
Battles for Civilization A major theme of my work — and raison d’etre of Monetary Metals — is fighting to prevent collapse. Civilization is under assault on all fronts. Battling the barbarians at the gate... [PT] There is the freedom of speech battle, with the forces of darkness advancing all over. For example, in Pakistan, there are killings of journalists. Saudi Arabia apparently had journalist Khashoggi killed. New Zealand now can force travelers to...
A Global Dearth of Liquidity
Worldwide Liquidity Drought - Money Supply Growth Slows Everywhere This is a brief update on money supply growth trends in the most important currency areas outside the US (namely the euro area, Japan and China) as announced in in our recent update on US money supply growth (see “Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency” for the details). Nobody likes a drought. This collage illustrates why. The liquidity drought is not confined to the US – it is fair to...
The Federal Punch Bowl Removal Agency
US Money Supply and Credit Growth Continue to Slow Down Not to belabor the obvious too much, but in light of the recent sharp rebound, the stock market “panic window” is almost certainly closed for this year.* It was interesting that an admission by Mr. Powell that the central planners have not the foggiest idea about the future which their policy is aiming to influence was taken as an “excuse” to drive up stock prices. Powell's speech was regarded as dovish. If it actually was,...
The Zealous Pursuit of State Sponsored Wealth Destruction
How to Blow $9 Billion The life cycle of capital follows a wide-ranging succession. It is imagined, produced, consumed, and destroyed. How exactly this all takes place involves varying and infinite undulations. The Stroh Brewery in Detroit. The company provided an example of how wealth that has been accumulated over generations can be completely destroyed due to just a handful of really bad decisions. [PT] One generation may produce wealth, while the...
Debt, Death, and the US Empire
Yosemite Sam Gets Worried About Federal Debt In a talk which garnered little attention, one of the Deep State’s prime operatives, National Security Advisor John Bolton, cautioned of the enormous and escalating US debt. Deep State operative John Bolton, a.k.a. Yosemite Sam [PT] Photo credit: Mark Wilson / Getty Images Speaking before the Alexander Hamilton Society, Bolton warned that current US debt levels and public obligations posed an “economic...
The Bien Pensants Agree: The World Doesn’t Need Gold – Precious Metals Supply and Demand
The Last Thing to be Left Standing – Alas, Not Yet The price of gold was about unchanged this week, whereas that of silver fell another nine cents. All Serious Right Thinking people agree that the world does not need gold. Indeed our monetary system produces Great Moderations that are totally unlike the incredible volatility of the gold standard era. They wish they could kill all memory of gold as money. Ben Bernanke, the inventor of the “Great Moderation” fairy tale,...
How To Give Thanks Like Socrates
Political Correctness Indoctrination [ed note: we are posting this belatedly as it was originally supposed to be published on Thanksgiving Day. Unfortunately your editor was out of commission... but MN Gordon's article is still worth reading. - PT] Ordinary ideals of Americana range as far and wide as the North American continent. The valued conviction of one American vastly differs from that of another. For example, someone from the Mid-Atlantic may have little connection...
Paper Lanterns
Mud Volcanoes There are numerous explanations for just what in the heck is going on with the economy. Some are good. Many are bad. Today we’ll do our part to bring clarity to disorder... Two data series it is worth paying attention to at the moment: the unemployment rate (U3) and initial claims. As the chart at the top shows, when the former makes a low it is time to worry about the economy. Low points in the U3 UE rate slightly lead the beginning of recessions....
Trump or Seasonality: Which One is Going to Prevail in the Dollar's Late Year Surge?
A Plethora of Headaches We hope the recent market turmoil is not giving our readers too much of a headache. As you are no doubt aware, the events of the last few weeks have made maneuvering around global markets rather difficult. A less than happy NYSE floor trader [PT] Photo crdit: Brendan McDermit The US faces uncertain economic times, as Trump and Xi Jinping remain locked in a bitter trade dispute that is likely to go on for some time, creating uncertainty...
Where is the PPT? Precious Metals Supply and Demand
A Rocky Road The price of gold rose $26, and the price of silver rose $0.44. And bitcoin fell $560. Somebody should look into if the Fed and the Plunge Protection Team and the Bitcoin Banks are in cahoots to sell bitcoin naked-short... No PPT for Bitcoin – after breaking a long-standing lateral support level, the cryptocurrency went into free-fall. You may notice the little remark in the annotation at the top of the chart: we believe BTC is highly likely to continue to...
The Big Picture: Paper Money vs. Gold
Numbers from Bizarro-World The past few months have been really challenging for anyone invested in gold or silver; for me personally as well. Despite serious warning signs in the economy, staggering debt levels and a multitude of significant geopolitical threats at play, the rally in risk assets seemed to continue unabated. Bizarro-World intrudes into our reality, courtesy of central banks. [PT] In fact, I was struggling with this seeming paradox myself. As I...
Austrian Theory and Investment
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