Gold’s Little Brother

Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver.

Silver, often referred to as the “little brother” of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to share with you.

 

Shiny large good delivery door stops made of silver – about to enter interesting seasonal phase. [PT]

 

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A Failure to Integrate Values

The only region in the world that has proactively tried to incorporate western culture in its societies is East Asia — Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. China, which was a grotesquely oppressed, poor, Third World country not too far in the past, notwithstanding its many struggles today, has furiously tried to copy the West.

 

Famous Greek philosophers: their thoughts are a cornerstone of Western culture. [PT]

 

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Printing Until the Cows Come Home…

It started out with Jay Powell planting a happy little money tree in 2019 to keep the repo market from suffering a terminal seizure. This essentially led to a restoration of the status quo ante “QT” (the mythical beast known as “quantitative tightening” that was briefly glimpsed in 2018/19). Thus the roach motel theory of QE was confirmed: once a central bank resorts to QE, a return to “standard monetary policy” becomes impossible. You can check in, but you can never leave.

 

Phase 1: Jay Powell plants a happy little money tree to rescue the repo market from itself (from: “The Joy of Printing”).

 

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The New In Gold We Trust Report is Here!

The In Gold We Trust 2020 report by our good friends Ronald Stoeferle and Mark Valek was released last week. It is the biggest and most comprehensive gold research report in the world. As always it contains a wealth of new material, as well as the traditional wide-ranging collection of charts and data that makes it such a valuable reference work for everything of interest to gold investors or indeed for anyone interested in precious metals (a download link to the report is provided below).

 

Left: casting gold bars. Right: using gold as a shield against assorted slings and arrows.

 

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Incrementum Advisory Board Discussion of April 8, 2020 with Special Guest Rick Rule

The Incrementum Fund’s Advisory Board held its quarterly meeting on April 8. This time renowned resource stock investor Rick Rule, the President and CEO of Sprott US Holdings Inc., joined the discussion as a special guest. As always, there is a download link to a transcript of the conference call in PDF format at the end of this post.

 

Rick Rule, CEO of Sprott US Holdings Inc., and renowned investor in the commodities sector.

 

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Gold Sector Outperforms Broad Market

The gold sector is in an uptrend since September 2018. The initially rather labored move accelerated after a secondary low was established in May 2019 and the 50-day and 200-day moving averages were breached for the second time. Last week the two moving averages were once again overcome in the course of the post-crash rebound. Here is a chart showing the entire move since 2018:

 

After a rather harrowing decline in sympathy with the February-March stock market crash, the HUI has swiftly moved back to its previous high for the move and is now trading above its 50- and 200-day moving averages again.

 

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Everything and the Kitchen Sink

After the first inter-meeting rate cut in early March, we opined that further rate cuts were a near certainty and that “not-QE” would swiftly morph into “QE, next iteration” (see Rate Cutters Unanimous for the details). As it turned out, the monetary mandarins did not even wait for the official FOMC meeting before deciding to throw everything and the kitchen sink at the markets. Not only were rates insta-ZIRPed, but “not-QE” became “QE on steroids, plus”.

 

The federal debt monetization machinery goes into orbit. Moon landing next?

 

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Easy Money Becomes Even Easier

Last week the FOMC surprised the markets with a rare inter-meeting rate cut. As the FOMC statement released on the occasion reveals, the decision to cut the  federal funds rate by a hefty 50 basis points was unanimous. The much-lamented “zero bound” is coming closer rather quickly.

 

A happy little money tree… from “The Joy of Printing”

 

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Containment Fail

We want to share a few observations about the growing COVID-19 epidemic, based on what we have seen so far. It has been obvious for a while now that the attempt to contain the spread of the virus has essentially failed. Ever since case numbers started to soar in South Korea, Italy and Iran, it was clear that hopes that the outbreak would remain confined to China were misplaced.

 

Doubleplus-ungood micro-organism COVID-19 looking for cells to infect

 

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Big Moves, Widening Spreads

The big news this week was the drop in the prices of the metals (though we believe that it is the dollar which is going up), $57 and $1.81 respectively.

 

Despair at the Unjustly Injured Gold Bugs Anonymous meeting… [PT]

 

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Post Hoc Fallacy

On Tuesday, at the precise moment Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell commenced delivering his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee, something unpleasant happened. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) didn’t go up. Rather, it went down.

 

The Fed chair and His Magnificence, God Emperor, Field Marshall & Stable Genius, POTUS Donald J. Trump: a complicated relationship. [PT]

 

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A Review of Murray N. Rothbard’s Conceived in Liberty, Vol. 5

Holy Writ

The posthumous release of Murray Rothbard’s fifth volume of his early American history series, Conceived in Liberty, is a cause of celebration not only for those interested in the country’s constitutional period, but also for the present day as the nation is faced with acute social, economic, and political crises.

 

Murray Rothbard, the foremost representative of the “American branch” of the Austrian School of Economics was not only an accomplished economic theorist, but also a great historian and political philosopher, who provided us with highly valuable insights and critical rebuttals of what is considered established and “acceptable” opinion these days. [PT]

 

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Most read in the last 20 days:

  • The Decline of the Third World
      A Failure to Integrate Values The only region in the world that has proactively tried to incorporate western culture in its societies is East Asia — Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. China, which was a grotesquely oppressed, poor, Third World country not too far in the past, notwithstanding its many struggles today, has furiously tried to copy the West.   Famous Greek philosophers: their thoughts are a cornerstone of Western culture....
  • An Excellent Seasonal Buying Opportunity in Silver Lies Directly Ahead
      Gold's Little Brother Today I want to put a popular precious metal under the magnifying glass for you: silver. Silver, often referred to as the "little brother" of gold, has a particularly interesting seasonal pattern I would like to share with you.   Shiny large good delivery door stops made of silver – about to enter interesting seasonal phase. [PT]   Silver's seasonality under the magnifying glass Take a look at the seasonal chart of silver. In contrast to a...

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